2025-06-10-花旗集团-J.M.斯马克公司（SJM）_J.M._Smucker（SJM.N）2026财年每股收益展望（8.50_-_9.50美元）远低于预期_14页_377kb

Company and Report Overview: The Citigroup Research report dated June 10, 2025, covers J.M. Smucker (SJM.N) with a focus on fiscal year 2026 (FY26) EPS outlook and Q4 2025 performance.

Q4 2025 Performance: J.M. Smucker reported a Q4 EPS of $2.31, beating the Visible Alpha consensus by 7 cents, but sales fell short, declining by 0.5% in comparable terms against a +1.3% consensus. US Retail Coffee was the standout segment with +10% comparable sales growth and $211MM profit vs. consensus of $184MM.

FY26 Outlook: The company guides for EPS of $8.50-9.50, well below the Visible Alpha consensus of $10.28 and significantly lower than the previous year's EPS of $10.15 at midpoint. Key headwinds include coffee demand elasticity ( -$0.80 impact), higher marketing ( -$0.30), net tariffs ( -$0.25), and weaker Hostess results ( -$0.20). Comparable sales growth is expected at 3.5-5.5%.

Valuation: Citigroup sets a target price of $128, implying a 14.4% expected share price return and 18.4% total expected return based on a 50/50 weighted P/E and EV/EBITDA approach. The outlook is viewed as disappointing due to below-consensus figures.

Risks: Key risks include potential execution challenges, unmet earnings growth expectations, and concerns over organic sales performance. Market reaction includes an 8% drop in shares following the report.