2025-06-10-花旗集团-麦特卡什有限公司（MTS）_Metcash有限公司（MTS.AX）_硬件业务整合合理；盈利更新基本符合市场预期_10页_240kb

Citi Research - MTS.AX (Metcash Ltd)

Citi’s Take

• Action: Buy
• Reasoning: Hardware division unification is logical and benefits operations in a down market, enabling better brand coordination. Departure of Total Tools CEO is a loss, but decision supports current leadership.
• Target Price: A$3.70
• Expected Share Price Return: 9.1%
• Expected Dividend Yield: 5.6%
• Expected Total Return: 14.7%

Key Recommendations & Analysis

• Hardware Merger: Streamlining operations and coordinating brands through the merger of IHG (Independent Hardware Group) and Total Tools business.
• Financial Guidance:
  • FY25 EBIT: A$2,427M (Guidance slightly below Citi's ~$513M)
  • FY25 NPAT: A$273-277M (Guidance slightly above Industry Average ~$272.9M)
  • MTS share price expected to trade flat.

Valuation

• Current Spot Valuation: A$3.59 per share
• 12-Month Target Price: A$3.70 per share
• Valuation Approach: Average of DCF (A$3.17), PE Relative Valuation (A$3.60), Sum-of-Parts Valuation (A$4.02)
• Justification: Reflects historical discount and potential contract losses.

Risks

• Downside Risks (Potential Dilution):
  1. Supermarket price war
  2. Lower food inflation impacting nominal revenue
  3. Rapid new supermarket store rollout
  4. Declining petrol prices hurting convenience store sales
  5. Weak Australian housing market impacting Mitre 10/Home Timber businesses
• Upside Risks (Potential Benefit):
  1. Further industry consolidation, benefiting MTS
  2. Increased share of sales in fresh produce and direct sales
  3. Liquor wholesaling consolidation improving returns
  4. Acquisition of beer volumes via ALM's DCs (favorable distribution changes by producers)