2025-06-10-花旗集团-贝尔韦公司（BWY）_贝尔韦公司（BWY.L）_2025财年预期积极的交易更新推动指引适度上调_14页_625kb

报告摘要

Date: June 10, 2025
Analyst: Ami Galla, Citi Research
Recommendation: Buy

Bellway PLC reported robust FY25 performance, with housing volumes guided to 8,600-8,700 units (prior guidance: at least 8,500 homes).
Average selling price (ASP) increased to approximately £315,000 (prior: £310,000), mainly due to product mix changes.
Operating margin at around 11%, in line with previous expectations.
The company is fully forward sold for the year, with an order book of 5,759 homes as of June 1, valuing £1.65 billion.
Key factors included stable pricing, low single-digit cost inflation, and a seasonal dip in sales rates.

Citi ups FY25 earnings estimate by approximately 3% due to higher guidance.
Revised target price raised to £31.0 from £30.1, reflecting a valuation roll forward and upside risks in a strong housing recovery.
The company's strong land bank, operational efficiency, and capital efficiency plans (targeting ROCE improvement) support future growth.
Minority risks include volume targets, competition, regulatory challenges, and legacy issues.

Projected growth: Target volume increase for FY26, with cumulative 20%+ growth over FY25 and 2026.
Balance sheet: Net debt at £73 million, low adjusted gearing expected by FY25.
Valuation: Traded at P/B of 0.85x for FY26, with a target multiple of approximately 1.0x; total return expected at 18.4% by FY27E.

Current market cap: £3.172 billion.
FY25E earnings: Sales revenue £2.745 billion, profit before tax £283 million, diluted EPS £168.
Growth projections: FY24 sales revenue declined by 30.1% year-over-year, while EBIT margin improved from 10.2% to 11.0% in FY25E.