20241209-紫金天风-氧化铝周报_乱石穿空_23页_1mb

Summary

On December 5, Zhou Hongjian, a futures analyst at Gomedo Futures (F3041932, Z0015195), provided market insights with Chen Jingmin (F03137989) and Xiao Lanlan (Z0013951) assisting. The core view stated: Oxide aluminum market supply is expected to increase, while downstream demand remains intact, making the short-term outlook cautious and optimistic.

The backwardation premium narrowed by 118 yuan/ton from the previous week. Weighted average profits reached 2,502 yuan/ton, a 29 yuan increase. The Shanghai Metal Index showed a 477 yuan/ton premium, a 25 yuan reduction weekly. although regional profit margins vary—Shandong is slightly bearish, while Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi are bullish—the overall market sentiment is neutral.

Key points include:

• Regional disparities: prices have narrowed between north and south regions.
• Imports: remain closed due to negative margins.
• Production/prices: A weekly output increase saw prices modestly rise, while futures exhibited significant volatility. Imports are still closed due to negative margins.
• Domestic inventories continue decreasing across all categories including production and delivery stocks. Overall inventory levels remain below average.

English Translation

Week Ending Report (December 5th): Market Insights
Author: Zhou Hongjian (F3041932, Z0015195), Assistant: Chen Jingmin (F03137989), Reviewer: Xiao Lanlan (Z0013951).

Key points:

• Supply outlook: Upward expected due to restored production in the Southwest region, but downstream demand remains strong.
• Local production margins are improving in most regions except Shandong, which saw a minor drop. Imports remain closed due to negative margins.
• Prices have stabilized regionally, though high demand supports prices. Inflation pressures ease slightly.
• Futures are under seasonal selling pressure, but short-term volatility is expected.

This report serves as a market analysis reference and does not constitute an investment advice.