PitchBook-2024年一季度量化视角：美国市场洞察（英）-2024-71页_896kb

The US market is showing signs of a potential soft landing in 2024, driven by improving economic indicators and lower inflation, but persistent high interest rates and elevated valuations pose risks. Valuations across markets, particularly in venture capital, buyouts, and real estate, remain high, leading to market bifurcation where strategies like private debt perform well, while others face challenges. Corporate default rates increased in 2023, and deal activity slowed.

Key macroeconomic trends include stable GDP growth near trend, low unemployment, and easing inflationary pressures, though the Fed's rate cuts are expected for 2024. The shift to higher yields has altered risk-return dynamics, with allocators potentially reducing risky asset exposure.

In private markets, deal volumes fell significantly in 2023 for PE growth and early-stage VC, while buyout deals remain relatively steady. Fund performance has normalized after pandemic anomalies, with VC outcomes regressed due to valuation corrections, while PE and infrastructure strategies show resilience. Exit channels via IPOs and M&A are weak, affecting fund liquidity.

Real estate markets face valuation repricing, especially in office properties, with retail showing improvement. Residential housing is pressured by high rates, but mortgage rate declines may boost activity in 2024. Property sectors vary widely in performance, with industrial outperforming and office lagging.

Debt markets saw strong returns from floating-rate loans, with private credit filling the gap left by traditional lenders. Default rates rose modestly, but distressed exchanges and repricings increase. The trend toward higher quality loans reduces reinvestment risk.

Overall, the environment favors risk mitigation and portfolio rebalancing due to higher rates, with opportunities in areas like private debt and earlier-stage VC, if higher-quality deals emerge despite capital scarcity.