2022-10-02-PitchBook-2022年三季度定量视角_美国市场洞察力（英）-2022.9-71页_71页_898kb

US Market Insights Second Quarter 2022 Report Summary

• Macro Overview:

  • The US economy faces significant headwinds with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and inflation at 8.3% YoY. Consumer sentiment has deteriorated to GFC levels.
  • The Fed's rate hikes have shifted the opportunity cost for institutional investors, potentially impacting private market allocations.
  • The PE Barometer score is -0.17, indicating slightly below-average fund returns for Q3 2022.

• Private Markets Overview:

  • PE growth, buyout, and venture capital funds have historically outperformed other strategies (16.7% and 13.7% net IRRs respectively).
  • Dispersion of fund returns widened in 2021, suggesting a "winner's curse" and potential return reversion.

• Fundraising & LP Allocations:

  • Venture capital funds raised $91.0B and PE growth funds raised $57.4B in 2021.
  • First-half 2022 showed declining new capital for buyout funds (-3.8%) due to slower deal activity.

• Deal Activity:

  • Mega-deals declined significantly from 2021 across all private market segments due to inflation and restrictive monetary policy.
  • Unicorns decreased to 660 in Q2 2022 from peak 1,018, though aggregate valuation was $2.3 trillion.

• Exit Environment:

  • Exit activity for both VC and PE-backed companies is at near-record lows, with public listings significantly declining and IPOs underperforming.

• Real Estate:

  • Fundraising reached record highs in 2021 and remained strong in 2022. Construction tech deal activity outperformed general real estate tech.
  • Industrial REITs suffered a 22.8% YoY decline amid broad-based public market sell-off.

• Infrastructure & Real Assets:

  • Infrastructure continued dominating fundraising, highlighting investor appetite for inflation-protected assets.
  • Clean tech VC deal activity has remained strong despite broader market pullback.

• Debt Markets:

  • Direct lending funds are challenging bank lending but face their own cost pressures as yields on middle-market debt nearly doubled to 8.4%.
  • Loan-officer surveys indicate earlier evidence that lending is pulling back, particularly for small and medium-sized firms.

• Key Takeaways:

  • Unprecedentedly tight monetary policy may persist, affecting private market dynamics.
  • Valuations are normalizing, though deals may occur at below-historical multiples.
  • LPs should monitor opportunity costs and geopolitical risks for strategic reallocation.