2024-02-28-PitchBook-2024年一季度量化视角_美国市场洞察（英）_71页_870kb

US Market Insights Summary for Q1 2024

Overview

Confidence in a US economic soft landing in 2024 is growing, following periods of pessimism in 2023. While market conditions are improving, high interest rates persist, and valuations across key sectors like venture capital (VC), private equity (PE), and real estate remain elevated, creating a bifurcation effect. Deal activity slowed notably compared to 2021, with lower volumes in buyouts, growth equity, and early-stage VC.

Macro Economic Landscape

• GDP growth is above trend, signalizing a potential soft landing, though recession fears have diminished.
• Inflation has eased considerably but remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target; the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2024.
• Job growth has been steady, keeping the unemployment rate low, which mitigates the impact of higher rates and inflation.
• Consumer and business confidence are still below historical medians, indicating persistent uncertainty.
• Higher interest rates have reduced the need for allocators to take on higher-risk assets to meet return targets, negatively impacting flows in VC and high-yield debt.

Private Markets Overview

• Deal volumes dropped significantly year-over-year, with early-stage VC down by 61.8%, reflecting reduced investor confidence.
• Investment returns for private equity funds have normalized after anomalous peaks during the pandemic, aligning more closely with fundamental market factors.
• Valuations in PE and VC are generally high relative to current rates, creating opportunities for strong performance in lower-risk areas but challenges in riskier asset classes.

Private Equity and Venture Capital

• PE fund returns have stabilized, while VC returns have declined from 2020-2021 peaks due to valuation corrections, potentially easing as the market adjusts.
• VC fundraising reached new lows in 2023, funding capital far trails demand, but the improved negotiating power of investors could lead to higher-quality deals.
• Buyout funds have better weathered the rate environment, while PE growth and VC continue to face normalization challenges.

Real Estate

• Fundraising decreased from 2021 highs, but significant capital remains available for deals, supporting repricing in commercial properties. Office valuations fell notably in 2023, while multifamily and retail segments show signs of stabilization.
• Residential markets saw uneven growth, with cities in the South and Midwest experiencing stronger price appreciation at the expense of high-cost areas like the West Coast.
• Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquency rates rose, indicating stress in the office sector amid remote work trends.

Real Assets and Debt Markets

• Infrastructure and natural resource funds underperformed due to mixed sector performance, though infrastructure-led initiatives show promise. Private credit filled the gap left by traditional lenders after bank failures in 2023, with nearly $100 billion raised.
• Debt markets saw strong performance from floating-rate products, which constitute a large part of private debt holdings. Higher rates stabilized loan volumes, but default rates and credit standards saw modest increases.
• High-yield bond issuance improved in 2023, driven by corporate needs despite muted middle-market activity.

Additional key research can be accessed on PitchBook's platform.