2021-10-05-德勤-预报的预测分析_20页_1mb

Louis Lee: Profile and Expertise

Louis Lee is a qualified actuary and Partner at Deloitte's Actuarial and Insurance Solution practice in Hong Kong, with over 20 years of experience across General and Health Insurance sectors in Asia and Australia. His expertise includes strategy, M&A, finance transformations, reinsurance optimization, actuarial reviews, product development, pricing, and market expansions. Key roles include serving as Asia Pacific CFO for a top global reinsurer, leading health insurance market entries in China, and working on various insurance projects. He has extensive analytics experience in customer and distribution analytics, and has led projects for clients in insurance and beyond.

Cash Liquidity Management

This involves improving cash flow visibility and velocity through a structured process: understanding operations, extracting data from various sources (e.g., bank statements, SAP systems), and visualizing key performance indicators (KPIs) via dashboards. The process includes scrutinizing policies and procedures and providing enhanced visibility for investment utilization and early warnings, leading to better cash conversion and operational efficiency.

Predictive Analysis

Predictive analysis uses machine learning models to forecast cash flows based on historical data, enabling informed investment strategies. Key steps include data preparation, model building (e.g., for cash replenishment predictions), and operationalizing insights. A case study with a global bank demonstrates improved ATM cash management by consolidating real-time data and optimizing investment allocation, resulting in cost savings and better planning.

Risk Analytics in Insurance

Risk analytics focuses on identifying and mitigating risks in insurance sales and operations, particularly through agent behavior monitoring. Common scenarios include commission abuse, targeted customer recruitment for financial gain, claim mechanism manipulation, and mis-selling. The analysis uses key risk indicators (KRIs) to assess lapse rates, claim frequency, and other metrics to enhance risk control.

Banking Analytics Case Studies

Several case studies highlight the application of advanced analytics in banking:

• Bank AML & Fraud Monitoring: Using natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning to triage alerts for suspicious activities, improving efficiency and reducing false positives.
• KYC Name Screening: Applying AI for alert prioritization and auto-closure based on individual data and external sources, streamlining investigations.
• Gaming Collusion Detection: Employing analytics like social network analysis and outlier detection to identify suspicious patterns in casino operations, leading to targeted interventions.

Price Optimization in Insurance

Price optimization is a holistic pricing framework that balances expected costs, customer willingness-to-pay, and market competitiveness. It involves statistical modeling at individual customer levels to determine optimal premium strategies, segmenting customers by elasticity and targeting discounts for better portfolio value. Current practices are shifting from flat pricing to data-driven, individualized approaches for enhanced profitability.

Questions About Deloitte

Deloitte is a global network providing professional services, including audit, consulting, and analytics. It is structured as separate entities worldwide, emphasizing independence. In China, Deloitte has a strong presence since 1917, contributing to local standards and serving various clients with a focus on innovation and quality.