2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Greece_Third_Review_Under_the_Stand_129页_1mb

Greece: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Greece, conducted by the IMF staff in consultation with other departments, and approved by Ajai Chopra and Martin Mühleisen on February 28, 2011. It includes a Staff Report, Press Release, Statement by the Staff Representative on Greece, and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece. The report discusses Greece's economic developments, program status, and future policy priorities.

Main Points

1. Stand-By Arrangement Overview

• The Stand-By Arrangement was approved on May 9, 2010, with a total amount of SDR 26.4 billion (3,212 percent of quota).
• Three disbursements were made up to December 2010, totaling €10.5 billion.
• The fourth disbursement, expected upon completion of this review, would be SDR 3.6045 billion (about €4.1 billion).
• Euro-area countries have already disbursed €27 billion, and will make another €10.9 billion available with this review.

2. Recent Economic Developments

• GDP declined by 4.5 percent in 2010, slightly more than previously expected.
• Inflation remained elevated due to indirect taxes and excise duties, but fell below the Euro area average in the second half of 2010.
• Unit labor costs began to decline in Q1 2010, driven by public sector wage cuts and labor reforms.
• Current account deficit narrowed by 16 percent in euro terms between June and December 2010.
• Public sector savings improved, while private savings declined due to income loss and tax increases.

3. Financial Sector

• Deposits fell by €35.8 billion (12.75 percent) in 2010, with most of the outflow occurring in the first half of the year.
• ECB liquidity support helped preserve financial system stability, though conditions tightened after changes in collateral rules and a Fitch downgrade.
• Credit growth to the domestic private sector slowed, and turned negative in December 2010.
• Asset quality continued to deteriorate, with nonperforming loans (NPLs) increasing to 10 percent of total loans.
• Capital reinforcement is ongoing, with major banks raising capital and restructuring plans in place.

4. Fiscal Policy

• The general government deficit was reduced to 9.5 percent of GDP, a 5.25 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment in 2010.
• Revenues fell short of projections, while expenditure under execution helped meet cash budget targets.
• Arrears amounted to €4.0 billion by end-November 2010, excluding health arrears.
• A tight 2011 budget targets a 7.5 percent of GDP general government deficit, with 3.5 percent of GDP in new fiscal measures needed.
• Structural fiscal reforms have begun to yield savings, particularly in the social security and health sectors.

5. Structural Reforms

• Labor market reforms advanced in two rounds, including collective bargaining and employment protection.
• Service market liberalization and business environment reforms have been legislated but delayed due to implementation issues.
• Privatization and real estate development are progressing, with a focus on accelerating these processes.
• Fiscal institutional reforms are underway, but arrears reporting remains a challenge, especially in subnational entities.

6. Market Sentiment and Risks

• Market sentiment remains weak, with sovereign spreads increasing significantly in the fourth quarter of 2010.
• Contagion risks are a concern, as increased market doubts could impact banking system liquidity.
• Near-term risks are skewed to the downside, but medium-term risks are more balanced.
• The economic recovery is expected to be gradual, with a focus on competitiveness and structural reforms.

7. Macroeconomic Outlook

• The economy is expected to bottom out in the second half of 2011, with negative GDP growth projected for 2011.
• Inflation is expected to fall to close to 1 percent by end-2011, with a gradual decline in the coming years.
• Competitiveness improvements are projected, with the real effective exchange rate expected to depreciate.
• The current account is expected to improve, driven by falling imports and rising exports.

8. Debt Sustainability

• Public debt is expected to peak in 2013 and then begin to decline, contingent on fiscal and structural adjustments.
• A banking shock could push public debt to over 200 percent of GDP, though government asset recovery and revenue maximization could provide some relief.
• The debt sustainability analysis is unchanged from the second review, with medium-term debt reduction potential.

Key Information

• The program status shows progress towards medium-term objectives, though major reforms remain to be designed and implemented.
• The fiscal adjustment in 2010 was significant, but some targets were missed, particularly the domestic arrears accumulation.
• The financial sector is under stress, but ECB support and capital raising have helped maintain stability.
• Structural reforms have started in key areas such as labor, service markets, and public administration, but implementation delays persist.
• Market sentiment remains fragile, and contagion risks could affect banking liquidity and business confidence.
• The IMF has approved the publication of the Staff Report, with market-sensitive information redacted.

Conclusion

The third review highlights continued economic contraction, fiscal adjustment, and financial sector stress, but also progress in structural reforms and fiscal institutional improvements. The IMF remains supportive, with further disbursements contingent on meeting performance criteria and implementing the medium-term strategy by May 2011. The path to fiscal sustainability and economic recovery depends on timely and vigorous structural reforms, improved tax administration, and enhanced competitiveness.