2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mali_Request_for_a_Three_107页_1mb

Mali: Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF)

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 13/380 outlines the economic situation and policy recommendations for Mali as it emerges from a severe security and political crisis. The report details the Request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which aims to support Mali's medium-term program to reduce balance-of-payments vulnerabilities and lay the foundation for stronger, more inclusive growth.

The ECF arrangement is requested for SDR 30 million (about 32% of quota) and is aligned with Mali's Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (G-PRSP) and Plan for Sustainable Recovery (PRED). The program focuses on fiscal discipline, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and improving the business environment to promote sustainable economic recovery and growth.

Main Policy Recommendations

• Implement an effective fiscal framework in 2014:

  • Ensure donor aid is directed toward priority spending.
  • Clear domestic arrears and minimize domestic borrowing.
  • Keep foreign borrowing in line with debt sustainability.
  • Target a 0.5% increase in tax revenue per year through improved compliance, broader tax base, and streamlined administration.
  • Maintain a moderate fiscal deficit (3.9% of GDP) consistent with debt sustainability.

• Step up PFM reforms:

  • Strengthen treasury management and internal controls to prevent new arrears.
  • Improve transparency and accountability in public spending.

• Accelerate reforms to improve the business environment:

  • Tackle weak governance and promote financial sector stability and development.
  • Reform electricity and petroleum product pricing to protect the government budget and restore the electricity company's financial integrity.
  • Implement anti-corruption measures to enhance governance.

Key Economic Developments and Outlook

1. Security and Political Recovery

• Mali has emerged from a serious security and political crisis, with successful presidential elections and new government formation.
• The security situation has improved, with the French-led military intervention helping to regain control of northern regions.
• The UN security force (MINUSMA) is assisting in restoring law and order.

2. Economic Recovery

• The economy is on the mend, with GDP growth projected at 5.1% in 2013 and 6.6% in 2014.
• Inflation has declined from 5.3% in 2012 to -0.1% in October 2013 due to a good harvest and falling food prices.
• Donor support has resumed, with €3.25 billion ($4.4 billion) pledged at the Brussels donor conference.
• Current account deficit is expected to reach 7% of GDP in 2013, but supported by strong remittances and official transfers, the balance of payments is projected to turn into a small surplus in mid-2013.

3. Fiscal Performance

• The government has met most of its structural benchmarks under the RCF disbursements.
• Tax revenue at end-June 2013 was on target, and external debt service obligations were met except for a non-Paris Club creditor.
• A budget support of CFAF 89 billion was raised in the first semester of 2013.
• The government has set aside funds in an escrow account to meet obligations to the non-Paris Club creditor.

4. Outlook and Risks

• The economic outlook is positive, but subject to risks such as adverse weather affecting agricultural output, and security instability.
• Gold and cotton are the main exports, and export revenues are vulnerable to price fluctuations.
• Donor support is expected to peak in 2014–15, averaging 8% of GDP.

Document Structure

Sections Covered

• Background, Recent Developments, and Outlook
• From Recovery to Strong and Inclusive Growth
• A. Supporting Macroeconomic Stability
• B. Strengthening Public Financial Management
• C. Improving the Business Environment
• Program Modalities and Risks
• Staff Appraisal
• Three-Year Arrangement under the ECF

Appendices

• I. Letter of Intent
• Attachment I—Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies
• Attachment II—Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Macroeconomic Developments, 2009–16
• Tables 1–12: Key economic and financial indicators, balance of payments, fiscal balances, and more.
• Boxes 1–3: Additional context on donor assistance, G-PRSP, and PFM reforms.

Summary of Key Indicators

Conclusion

Mali's recovery is supported by donor assistance and improved security, but challenges remain in terms of fiscal sustainability, public financial management, and business environment reform. The ECF arrangement aims to consolidate the recovery, support inclusive growth, and ensure macroeconomic stability. The program emphasizes fiscal discipline, revenue mobilization, and reforms in governance and the private sector to build a resilient and diversified economy.