2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ghana_Request_for_a_Three_125页_1mb

GHANA: Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

The document outlines Ghana's request for a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), amounting to SDR 664.20 million (180% of quota), aimed at supporting its medium-term economic reform program. The initiative is part of the second Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA II), which focuses on fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, monetary stability, and sustainable growth.

Main Objectives and Program Framework

• Debt Sustainability: The program seeks to restore debt sustainability through a frontloaded fiscal adjustment, reducing the fiscal deficit and improving the external position.
• Fiscal Discipline: The goal is to eliminate fiscal dominance over monetary policy and rebuild external buffers.
• Economic Diversification: The government aims to diversify the economy, reduce reliance on oil and gold, and promote social inclusion.
• Monetary Stability: The inflation-targeting framework will be restored, and interest rates will be stabilized to support private sector activity.

Key Policies

A. Fiscal Policy

• Revenue Expansion:

  • Introduction of a Special Petroleum Tax (17.5%) in November 2014.
  • Implementation of a 5% flat rate VAT on real estate and VAT on fee-based financial services in January 2015.
  • Extension of special import levies and National Fiscal Stabilization Levy to selected sectors.
  • Estimated revenue impact of 2% of GDP.

• Expenditure Restriction:

  • Limiting the nominal wage bill increase to 10%.
  • Discontinuation of the 10% Cost of Living Allowance in 2014.
  • Freezing public sector hiring except for education and health.
  • Eliminating subsidies for utilities and petroleum products via tariff and price adjustment mechanisms.
  • Estimated expenditure savings of 2% of GDP.

• Arrears Clearance:

  • Clearing the stock of domestic arrears through cash payments and securitization to state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
  • 25% of arrears is expected to be repaid in 2015.
  • Audit of outstanding arrears to suppliers is planned first.

• Fiscal Space Utilization:

  • Expanding social safety nets, including the LEAP program, which will nearly double its coverage to 150,000 households.
  • Protecting basic healthcare coverage.

B. Structural Reforms

• Public Financial Management (PFM):

  • Strengthening expenditure controls and payroll efficiency.
  • Enhancing wage bill control and reducing inefficiencies.

• Tax Administration:

  • Improving revenue collection through tax policy and administrative reforms.

• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs):

  • Reforming SOEs to improve efficiency and reduce fiscal burden.

Macroeconomic Impact

• Growth Outlook:

  • Non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.3% in 2015 before rebounding to 5.5% in 2017.
  • Total GDP growth is projected at 3.5% in 2015 and 9.2% in 2017, driven by rising hydrocarbon production.

• Inflation:

  • Headline inflation reached 17.0% in 2014, above the 8% target range.
  • Core inflation continued to rise due to the lagged effects of currency depreciation.
  • Inflation is expected to decline gradually as fiscal and monetary policies take effect.

• Exchange Rate:

  • The Cedi depreciated sharply in 2014, contributing to inflationary pressures.
  • The exchange rate stabilized following the $1 billion Eurobond and a $1.8 billion short-term loan to the Cocoa Board.

• Public Debt:

  • Public debt is projected to decline to 50% of GDP by 2025, following the ECF-supported fiscal adjustment.
  • The overall cash deficit is expected to reduce from 9.5% of GDP in 2014 to 3.5% in 2017.

• International Reserves:

  • Net international reserves declined in 2014 but are expected to recover by 2017 to 4.2 months of import coverage.

Risks and Challenges

• Implementation Risks:

  • Delays or partial implementation of policies, especially before elections in 2016.
  • Electricity crisis could hinder growth and increase non-performing loans (NPLs).

• External Risks:

  • Commodity price shocks, particularly in oil and gold, could negatively impact fiscal sustainability.
  • Terms of trade weakening due to declining gold prices.
  • Global financial conditions may increase financing costs and reduce concessional resources.

• Social and Political Risks:

  • Social tensions could arise from fiscal overruns and policy reversals.
  • Public sector resistance to wage bill controls and expenditure cuts.

Financing and Debt Management

• The program is fully financed through a combination of external concessional loans, domestic financing, and limited non-concessional borrowing.
• The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) highlights the high risk of debt distress if the debt-service to revenue ratio remains above acceptable levels.
• The government is committed to borrowing only from sources with a minimum grant element of 35%.
• A Eurobond is planned for the second half of 2015 to replace domestic borrowing and reduce interest costs.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF staff team, outlining the economic situation and policy recommendations.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Jointly prepared by the IMF and the World Bank.
• Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Included in the Staff Report and separately released.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the authorities' request for a three-year ECF arrangement, emphasizing the need for forceful and sustained implementation of the reform program to address macroeconomic imbalances and restore market confidence. The program is designed to achieve fiscal sustainability, improve the external position, and support long-term growth through structural reforms and debt management. However, risks remain, particularly related to policy implementation, external shocks, and social stability.