2025-05-15-Jefferies-奥克兰机场（AIA）_2025年4月客运量增长缓慢_9页_220kb

Company and Rating: Auckland Airport Ltd. maintains a Hold rating with an unchanged price target of NZD8.26 per share, reflecting slower-than-guidance passenger growth.

Passenger Performance: In April 2025, total passenger volumes increased by 0.6% year-on-year (FYTD +0.9%), with a pre-COVID recovery rate of 87.1%. Domestic passengers saw a 2.3% year-on-year decline, while international passengers grew by 3.2%, tracking below the FY25 guidance of 4% total growth.

Financial Outlook: FY25 revenue and earnings forecasts remain relatively flat, with a price target based on DCF analysis. The draft master plan projects international passengers at 11.7m in FY28, slightly below consensus estimates.

Risks: Key risks include ongoing capacity constraints, global macro uncertainty, regulatory reviews, and potential slowdown in passenger recovery. Catalysts involve monthly traffic data releases and FY25 results.

Investment Thesis: The stock is favored for its role in New Zealand's gateway, with potential from VFR traffic and asset development, but downside risks include delayed recovery and geopolitical factors.

Valuation: Discounted cash flow model with a price target of NZD8.26, highlighting potential upside to NZD9.46 under strong scenarios and downside to NZD6.25 in adverse cases.