Airlines-2019年美国夏季航空客运量报告（英文）-2019.5.21-34页_1mb

Summary of A4A 1Q 2019 Review & Summer Air Travel Forecast

Core Content

Airlines for America (A4A) released a detailed review of the first quarter of 2019 and a summer air travel forecast, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing U.S. airlines. The report discusses the impact of operational disruptions, the effects of the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, and the projected growth in air travel during the summer months.

Main Points

1Q 2019 Review

• Operating Challenges: U.S. airlines faced several operational disruptions in 1Q 2019, including:

  • Drone sightings causing flight delays at LHR and EWR.
  • Runway maintenance and rehabilitation at major airports.
  • Major weather events like the Polar Vortex, snowstorms, and lightning storms.
  • The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX, affecting major carriers like American, United, and Southwest.
  • A widespread Sabre outage impacting passenger check-in and boarding.

• Profitability: Despite these challenges, U.S. airlines saw a modest improvement in profitability due to:

  • Strong traffic growth (up 4.6%).
  • Slight increase in yield (revenue per passenger-mile flown).
  • Continued cost increases across all major categories.

Summer Air Travel Forecast

• Growth Projection: A4A forecasts that summer 2019 air travel will rise for the tenth consecutive year, reaching an all-time high of 257.4 million passengers (or 2.8 million per day).
• Capacity Increase: U.S. airlines are adding 111,000 seats/day to accommodate 93,000 more passengers/day.
• TSA Data Comparison: A4A's forecast aligns with TSA data but accounts for a broader universe of airports and travelers, including international ones.

Key Trends

• LCCs/ULCCs Dominance: Low-cost carriers (LCCs) and ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCCs) are now carrying a significant share of domestic O&D passengers in major U.S. metro areas, with some airports seeing over 60% of passengers on non-AA/DL/UA airlines.
• Capacity Adjustments: Airlines are adjusting capacity by:
  • Trimming 2019 capacity relative to planned growth.
  • Utilizing spare aircraft.
  • Increasing utilization of other aircraft types.
  • Defering maintenance and reducing frequency on longer routes.
  • Temporarily suspending lighter routes.
  • Leveraging automated rebooking tools.
• Fuel Costs: Crude oil prices reached a high since October 2018, impacting airline costs.

Items to Watch

• TSA Pre✓®:

  • Over 8 million members are using Pre✓®.
  • 93% of Pre✓® passengers waited less than 5 minutes in line in April 2019.
  • TSA plans to pilot in-journey enrollment via "TSA tablet" at select airports.
  • A4A supports innovative entry solutions like Global Entry and Mobile Passport Control to reduce wait times.

• REAL ID Requirements:

  • Starting October 1, 2020, a REAL ID driver's license or other valid ID will be required to fly within the U.S.
  • A4A is concerned about the impact on passengers and supports the administration's request for supplemental appropriations for CBP staffing and overtime.

• Airport Investments:

  • Airport capital improvements exceed $200 million from 2001-2018.
  • Federal Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants are increasing, with significant projects underway at major airports like LAX, DFW, and Portland International Airport.
  • A4A opposes increasing the Passenger Facility Charge (PFC), emphasizing that airports have sufficient funds and that higher taxes would burden consumers.

Key Statistics

• Daily Flights: 27,000 globally.
• Daily Passengers: 2.4 million.
• Daily Cargo: 58,000 tons.
• 2018 Traffic: Over 1 trillion miles traveled by U.S. carriers.
• 2019 Capacity: Airlines are offering a record 3.2 million daily seats from U.S. airports.

Conclusion

The A4A report underscores the resilience of U.S. airlines despite operational challenges and highlights the importance of maintaining profitability and passenger satisfaction. It also emphasizes the need for continued support for airport infrastructure and the potential impact of new regulations like the REAL ID requirement. The summer forecast indicates sustained growth in air travel, driven by strong consumer sentiment and economic factors.