巴黎银行-美股-宏观策略-美国FOMC：把精灵放回瓶子里-20181214-9页_1mb

报告摘要

December 2018 FOMC Summary

Core Content

The December 2018 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to result in a dovish rate hike, reflecting the Fed's response to financial market volatility, falling inflation expectations, and slowing growth in interest rate-sensitive sectors. The meeting will also signal a shift towards greater data dependence and flexibility in its policy approach.

Main Views

Rate Hike Expectations: A December hike is priced at around 80% in the market, slightly less than the one hike expected for the entire year of 2019. The Fed is likely to maintain a gradual hiking path through the first half of 2019 before pausing in the second half.
Statement Adjustments: The FOMC will likely revise its language from "further gradual increases" to emphasize data dependence and flexibility, signaling a more cautious stance. The statement may also include references to global economic developments and a decline in inflation expectations.
Rate Path Revisions: The median "dot" for 2019 is expected to move down by 25bp, and for 2020–21 by 37.5bp, implying fewer hikes in the future. The longer-term median rate is expected to drop by 12.5bp to 2.875%, indicating a dovish shift.
Economic Projections: The Fed will likely lower its growth forecasts for 2019 by around 0.2–0.3pp, and reduce core PCE forecasts by 0.1pp. The unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 3.6% in 2019.
IOER Adjustment: The Fed is expected to increase the IOER rate by 20bp, to keep effective fed funds rates within the target range.

Key Information

Market Conditions

Financial Volatility: Increased market volatility, particularly in equities, has led to a selloff in risk assets and break-even prices.
USD Strength: The USD has been overvalued relative to rates, and with long USD positions rebuilt, limited dollar gains are expected even if yields rise.
Equity Performance: The S&P 500 is down ~10% from its peak, and a 10–15% drop is typically seen as a signal for the Fed to adjust its stance.

Inflation Trends

Core PCE: Stood at 1.8% y/y in December, down from 2.0% in July.
Inflation Expectations: Declined to 1.84% in break-even rates, from 2.15% in October, with the University of Michigan inflation expectations at historic lows.
Fed's Inflation Outlook: The Fed does not appear overly concerned about inflationary risks, with Chair Powell indicating that low unemployment is more of a concern than rising inflation.

Growth and Data

Activity Data: Overall remains solid, with personal spending and payroll gains still strong.
Weaknesses: Fixed investment has weakened, with core capital goods orders down to 3.4% y/y in October from 8.8% in July. Housing market indicators have also shown decline, with homebuilder sentiment falling and housing sales weakening.
Labor Market: Nonfarm payrolls remain strong, though slower than previously. The unemployment rate has stayed low, at 3.7%.

Curve Inversion

Yield Curve Flattening: Continued after a brief pause in September, with the FOMC divided on its interpretation.
Recession Signals: While past inversions have preceded recessions, the FOMC is cautious about inferring causality from correlations.
No Clear Signal Expected: The December meeting is unlikely to provide a clear signal on the curve, though it may appear in the Minutes.

FOMC Composition

Participants Change: Temporary participant Mark Gould is out, while Governor Michelle Bowman and SF Fed President Mary Daly are in.
Median Dots Shift: A shift in the median dots for 2019–21 is expected, driven by Bowman and Daly potentially lowering their estimates.

Conclusion

The December FOMC meeting is expected to be dovish in tone, with a shallow rate hike and downward revisions to the projected rate path and economic forecasts. The Fed is aiming to tamp down financial tightening and emphasize flexibility, while still maintaining gradual rate increases in the near term. The overall economic data remains solid, but weaknesses in rate-sensitive sectors and falling inflation expectations will likely lead to a more cautious policy stance.

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