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Lead Market Weekly Summary

Macro Analysis

• Macro factors influenced lead prices, with mixed US economic data and Jay Powell's neutral hawkish tone supporting a stronger dollar. This dollar strength pressured both domestic and international lead prices, leading to a volatile market. Overall macro sentiment remains uncertain.

Fundamental Analysis

• Supply side showed temporary tightening due to planned maintenance at primary lead smelters, while the secondary lead sector faced ongoing high demand for recycled inputs like waste batteries, providing strong cost support.
• Demand from lead batteries remains weak and hesitant, limited by price increases, although inventories have not surged, offering some upward support amidst price传导 issues and supply constraints.
• Key indicators: SHFE lead ended the week around 16,435 yuan/ton with a weekly gain; LME lead was at 2,160 dollars/ton, up slightly; inventories saw minor decreases in Shanghai and LME warehouses, suggesting limited cumulative growth.

Core Viewpoints

• Fundamentally, the market is in a tight balance with strong cost support, supply constraints, and lackluster demand, but recent price action is more driven by financial markets.
• Short-term prices are expected to remain range-bound at high levels due to selling interest, though may face downward pressure if exchange warehouse inventories increase significantly.

Strategy

• Recommendation:观望 (cautious观望), avoid aggressive positions with limited upside.

Risk Factors

• Macro risks include sudden sentiment shifts from US economic data or Powell's comments.
• Physical risks involve market tightness in deliveries leading to soft逼仓 scenarios, with持仓量 rising above 190,000 tons stressing the market structure. Also, global supply surplus and trade data fluctuations pose ongoing threats.