世界银行-增值税豁免_嵌入税和意外后果（英）-2025.5_33页_1mb

Summary of VAT Exemptions Analysis

The paper examines the unintended consequences of VAT exemptions using a model based on input-output tables and household data for 29 European countries. VAT exemptions, which deny input tax credits, increase production costs and embed VAT in final prices, leading to complex direct and indirect effects.

Key findings show that exemptions generate both direct reductions and indirect (embedded and cascaded) increases in effective tax rates (ETRs) across goods and services. Many simulations result in higher ETRs, often exceeding the standard rate in some cases, due to embedded tax in inputs and cascading effects. Distributional impacts are poorly targeted, with exemptions potentially exacerbating regressivity despite good intentions.

Methodology involves an iterative model that captures changes in direct, embedded, and cascaded VAT, providing novel insights into pricing and revenue effects under different exemption scenarios.

Policy implications recommend that exemptions be limited to addressing specific administrative challenges, such as for small businesses or margin-based financial services. This analysis suggests targeted transfers as superior tools for distributional goals, with reduced VAT rates being less effective than desired.

In conclusion, VAT exemptions are inefficient and counterproductive for revenue, distribution, and policy targets, and should be used sparingly.