20240723-国投证券-食品饮料行业周报_内需情绪修复_把握分歧大_超跌个股机会_17页_1mb

食品饮料行业周报：内需情绪修复，把握超跌个股机会

总结如下：

中文总结（字数约 500 词）

本周食饮板块表现强劲，上涨 3.33%，在申万 28 个行业排名第二位。旗下多数子行业呈上涨趋势，受益于内需情绪修复与超跌反弹的结合。

此报告指出，此前市场因消费悲观情绪而严重超跌。淡季数据表现不佳、消费税改革不及预期以及茅台批价下跌加剧了这种情绪，投资者也依赖单方面数据进行过度悲观预期调整，导致多数个股表现低迷。但随着茅台批价回暖、消费税阶段性实施，市场悲观情绪有所缓解，板块迎来反弹。

报告强调，应抓住市场情绪极端化所产生的高分歧及超跌机会，尤其是因过度交易而出现分歧大的个股。企业实际运行往往难以被线性逻辑预期覆盖，会产生预期差。 此轮情绪波动中，许多个股已跌至 2024 年年初位置，存在估值修复的可能。

投资建议：在消费税落地与茅台批价稳定的背景下，建议积极配置板块，重点关注估值偏低或存在分歧的个股。

1. 白酒：继续推荐区域酒龙头，短期关注超跌标的，重点推荐五粮液、今世缘、古井贡酒、老白干酒、山西汾酒、泸州老窖等，同时关注金徽酒、伊力特。
2. 啤酒：因成本下行带来的利润弹性，推荐燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、华润啤酒、重庆啤酒。
3. 餐饮供应链：估值偏低，增长预期充足，重点推荐中炬高新、千禾味业、安井食品、立高食品、千味央厨，建议关注三全食品、宝立食品。
4. 休闲零食：板块增长前景显著，具备显著估值修复优势，推荐三只松鼠、劲仔食品、盐津铺子、甘源食品、好想你，同时要看低估值且高分红、成本改善型的洽洽食品。
5. 饮料：兼具成长性与分红潜力，建议关注东鹏饮料、养元饮品、百润股份、香飘飘等。

风险因素包括：食品安全风险、行业竞争加剧、需求恢复不及预期以及原材料成本超预期上涨等。

English Summary (Translation)

Food & Beverage industry weekly report: Internal demand sentiment repair, grasp the opportunity of significant divergence and oversold stocks.

This report points out that the market, due to excessive pessimism, had experienced severe declines. Factors such as poor performance in the off-season, tax reforms not meeting expectations, and falling wholesale prices for Moutai exacerbated this sentiment. However, with stabilization in Moutai's wholesale prices and the phased implementation of consumption tax, market pessimism has somewhat eased, leading to a rebound in the sector.

The report emphasizes capitalizing on opportunities arising from market sentiment extremes, particularly high分歧 and oversold stocks. Enterprise operations often deviate from linear forecasts, creating differences between market expectations and reality. In this wave of sentiment fluctuation, many stocks have fallen back to their early-2024 levels, presenting potential for valuation repair.

Investment Recommendation: With the phased implementation of consumption tax and stable wholesale prices for Moutai, the food and beverage sector is poised for a rebound after being oversold. Focus primarily on stocks with low valuations or significant divergence.

1. Baijiu: Continue recommending regional brands, with short-term focus on significantly oversold stocks; key recommendations include Wuliangye, Gujing Gonjiu, Lao Baiyang Jiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, etc., while watching Jinhu Weteng and Yili Liquor.
2. Beer: Lower costs drive profit elasticity; recommend Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer.
3. Catering Supply Chain: Expectedly low growth expectations and stock prices; strongly recommend Zhongju Group, Qianhe Food, Anning Food, Lega Food, and Qianwei Caiyu; keep an eye on Sanyuan Food and Baoli Food.
4. Snack Foods: The sector maintains strong growth prospects and enjoys valuation advantages due to recent pullbacks; recommend San Zhi Shenshu, Jin Zhai Food, Yan Jun Puzi, Gan Yuan Food, and Hao Xiang Ni, while also recommending low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like Qiaojia Food that have seen cost improvements.
5. Beverages: Various highlights including growth and dividends; keep an eye on Dongpeng Beverage, Yingyuan Drinks, BarVenture, and Xiangpaopao.

Risks include: food and safety issues, intensified industry competition, subpar demand recovery, and unexpected, sharp increases in raw material costs.