20140411-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_571kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 11 Apr 2014

Core Content

This document provides a summary of recent news and market reports in the oil and gas sector across Asia, focusing on key developments and valuation data for various companies.

Main News Headlines

China skips crude export in March for the first time in five years
- China's total crude oil imports in March increased by 0.9% YoY to 23.25mt.
- Total crude oil imports for 1Q14 rose by 8.3% YoY to 74.72mt.
- China recorded no crude oil exports in March, marking a significant shift.
- Crude oil exports for 1Q14 decreased by 60.6% YoY to 250kt.
- Platts estimates that commercial oil product inventories are at a four-year high due to sluggish demand.
- More refiners are being granted permission to export oil products.
BASF PETRONAS Chemical breaks ground on new Malaysia complex
- The company began construction of a USD500m integrated aroma ingredients complex in Gebeng, Malaysia.
- The first phase is expected to be completed by 2016.
March monthly sales was up for Taiwan's Formosa Group
- All four anchor companies of Formosa Group reported monthly sales growth in March.
- The growth was attributed to more working days, higher downstream capacity utilisation, and inventory restocking.
Traders suspect Mexico-Asia ethylene arbitrage might work
- Traders are exploring the possibility of exporting ethylene from Mexico to Asia due to high price spreads.
- The estimated total cost of ethylene for Mexico-Asia trade is USD1,320-1,420/tonne.
- It is unlikely to secure a vessel for this trade at a reasonable rate.
Osaka Gas seeks US shale assets to hedge LNG imports
- Osaka Gas, Japan's second-largest city gas distributor, is considering acquiring additional US shale gas assets.
- The company already has a liquefaction tolling agreement with the Freeport project for up to 2.2mtpa of LNG.
Shell signs MoU with CNPC for future exploration & production cooperation
- Shell's CEO signed an MoU with CNPC's chairman for future exploration and production cooperation.
Perisai Petroleum raises USD50m through private placement
- The company raised MYR165.9m (USD50m) through a private placement.
- Institutional investors subscribed to most of the shares at MYR1.53 per share.

Key Market Reports

Keppel Corp (KEP SP) - Extending its China Footprint
- Maintain BUY with a target price of SGD12.48.
- The company has signed a management agreement for Titan Quanzhou Shipyard for 30 years.
- This agreement provides an opportunity to access the closed offshore market in China and address rising competition from local yards.
Ezion Holdings (EZI SP) - Getting things moving down under
- Maintain BUY with a target price of SGD2.90.
- The company is entering into a collaboration with AusGroup, taking a 6.9% stake.
- The arrangement is synergistic and mutually beneficial, offering new opportunities in Australia.
Petronas Gas - Not as accretive as expected
- Maintain HOLD with a target price of MYR23.50.
- While not significantly earnings-accretive, the revenue profile is now more stable.
- The higher reservation charge in the 5th GPTA is offset by lower fees for liquid by-products.
Special Feature - PETRONAS gives go-ahead for RAPID
- Significant positive news, well received by the market.
- The investment value is estimated to be 20% below the original budget, but could change with development progress.
- Dialog is a major beneficiary, followed by other O&G groups and construction and property sectors.

Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 10-Apr	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USD)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	8.86	NR	225.6	97.2	9.9	9.8	5.6	5.1	11.8	1.1	4.5
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	7.34	NR	102.9	115.6	10.2	9.1	5.5	4.8	12.2	1.2	4.1
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	12.80	NR	73.7	122.0	8.1	8.0	3.7	3.6	17.3	1.3	4.4
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	321.95	NR	45.6	20.1	11.4	10.4	6.2	4.7	16.8	1.8	3.0
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	969.05	NR	51.8	53.5	13.7	13.5	10.6	10.1	11.9	1.6	0.9
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	359.65	443.00	11.4	13.5	5.7	5.0	3.8	3.3	25.1	1.4	3.2
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	451.85	NR	5.4	10.0	17.4	15.6	7.4	8.6	11.5	1.9	2.4
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	318.50	NR	1.8	6.4	21.5	11.7	12.7	10.4	3.7	0.8	2.7
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	buy	12.72	15.90	2.7	2.2	31.8	36.3	13.2	10.4	5.0	1.3	0.4
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	buy	5.76	7.22	0.2	0.1	13.1	7.9	10.0	7.1	12.7	1.3	1.4
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	buy	69.25	87.00	9.7	27.0	9.4	8.4	7.2	7.4	14.4	1.3	2.3
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	sell	52.75	65.00	3.3	6.4	10.4	9.2	6.8	7.4	11.7	1.2	3.3
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	buy	92,500	103,000	8.3	1.8	14.3	12.1	9.6	7.7	40.6	5.3	3.2

Additional Valuation Data

Asian Oil & Gas Average
- P/E (2013): 23.2
- P/E (2014E): 16.2
- EV/EBITDA (2013): 13.5
- EV/EBITDA (2014E): 10.8
- RoE %: 8.6
- P/B (X): 1.4
- Yield %: 1.6
Asian Refiners Average
- P/E (2013): 13.3
- P/E (2014E): 10.5
- EV/EBITDA (2013): 5.6
- EV/EBITDA (2014E): 4.6
- RoE %: 13.9
- P/B (X): 1.5
- Yield %: 4.3

Analyst Contacts

Hong Kong/China: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
India: Jigar Shah (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Singapore: Yeast Chee Keong (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Philippines: Laura Dy-Liacco (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com; Bianca Solema (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn