20140613-Maybank_KERPL-Gegional_Oil___Gas_11页_571kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 13 June 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 13 June 2014, highlighting price movements, key news, and analyst ratings across various countries in Asia, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. The report also includes a valuation comparison of key oil and gas companies in the region.
Major Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 3.6% to $113.95 per barrel.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 2.0% to $106.53 per barrel.
- Henry Hub: Up by 6.0% to $4.78 per MMBtu.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Gained 1.3% to $107.09 per barrel.
- China Daqing Spot: Increased by 1.1% to $109.53 per barrel.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Rose by 1.5% to $119.35 per barrel.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up by 1.6% to $121.79 per barrel.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Increased by 1.3% to $619.19 per metric ton.
- Gold: Rose by 1.0% to $1,273.46 per ounce.
- USD-CNY: Declined by 0.1% to 6.22.
- DJI: Down by 0.7% to 16,734.19.
- S&P 500: Fell by 0.7% to 1,930.11.
Key News Headlines
- PetroChina refinery upgrade delay continues: The upgrade of one of its refineries to process higher sulfur Saudi crude has been delayed.
- Genting increases stake in Linc: Genting acquired an additional 10.7 million shares of Linc Energy, raising its stake to 10%.
- OCI shuts down naphthalene-based PA lines: OCI's facility was shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart on 13-14 June.
- Octanex lands risk service contract with Petronas: Octanex holds a 50% interest in the contract with Scomi D&P and Vestigo Petroleum.
- Pertamina in talks to acquire stake in Talisman Duvernay: Pertamina is considering acquiring a stake in Talisman Energy's Duvernay shale, with $7.9 billion allocated for acquisitions in 2014.
- Lukoil collecting cash from West Qurna-2 project: Lukoil has maintained 120kbpd for 90 days and is expected to begin recovering costs.
- Sinopec increases butadiene ex-factory price: Sinopec raised the ex-factory price by CNY300 per tonne to CNY9,300 per tonne.
Analyst Reports and Ratings
Perusahaan Gas Negara (Indonesia)
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: IDR 5,500
- Key Points:
- Growth is expected to be slow with margin pressure.
- LNG operations in mid-2014 will support gas volumes but at the expense of margins.
- Upstream unit contributes less than 8% to revenue.
SapuraKencana Petroleum (Malaysia)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR 5.30
- Key Points:
- Made four significant natural gas discoveries at SK408 field.
- A Gas Sales Agreement is likely to be signed by year-end.
- Maintaining BUY with revised target price.
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: PHP 7.05
- Key Points:
- Maintaining BUY with revised TP due to lower-than-expected 1Q14 volume sales.
- Volume sales dropped 23% YoY due to competitive pressure.
- One of the best performing stocks YTD, up 25ppts over PSEi.
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 12-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E 2013 | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013 | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 9.45 | NR | 221.0 | 88.2 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.31 | NR | 98.6 | 89.5 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 13.60 | NR | 78.3 | 94.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 428.60 | NR | 61.8 | 40.1 | 15.1 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 16.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,094.15 | NR | 59.6 | 75.9 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | BUY | 370.30 | 400.00 | 11.9 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 25.1 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 599.05 | NR | 7.3 | 16.2 | 23.0 | 15.7 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 428.50 | NR | 2.4 | 12.1 | 28.9 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | HOLD | 24.20 | 23.50 | 14.9 | 5.4 | 23.0 | 28.8 | 17.9 | 15.6 | 21.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | BUY | 11.88 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 26.4 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | BUY | 6.33 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Key Insights
- The oil and gas market experienced a mixed performance with crude oil prices rising, while some other commodities saw declines.
- Major players in the region, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, and Pertamina, are involved in strategic moves, including acquisitions and refinery upgrades.
- Analysts maintain a BUY rating for some companies, such as SapuraKencana and Petron Corp, while others are rated HOLD or SELL.
- Valuation metrics indicate varying levels of profitability and market expectations across the region.
Summary
The regional oil and gas market in early June 2014 showed a mix of price increases and strategic developments. Crude oil prices rose due to OPEC's decision to maintain production levels, while other commodities and indices had mixed movements. Companies like SapuraKencana and Phoenix Petroleum Philippines were highlighted for positive performance and growth potential, while others faced challenges such as refinery delays and margin pressure. The valuation comparison provides insight into the financial health and market expectations of major players in the region.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
