2022-01-26-牛津经济研究院-Global_Rising_risk_of_a_higher_inflation_regime_5页_247kb

Rising Risk of Higher Inflation Regime

This report, authored by economists from Oxford Economics, highlights an increased risk of a permanent shift to higher inflation in advanced economies, with the US being the primary concern. The probability of inflation remaining at 4% or higher for several years in the US is now estimated at 20%-25%, up from previous assessments. Key factors driving this risk include: persistent and sticky inflation due to ongoing supply shocks (e.g., supply chain issues and energy prices), strong monetary growth from post-pandemic stimulus, and tightening labor markets in some economies, which could entrench higher inflation. In contrast, the eurozone and Japan face lower risks (below 10%), while the UK sits around 15%. Despite recent central bank actions, such as interest rate hikes and policy signals, long-term inflation expectations remain contained, but the risk is rising. Markets may be underestimating these risks, with tail risks increasingly skewed toward high inflation outcomes. Overall, the report suggests a more protracted inflation period than initially anticipated, prompting caution in economic outlooks.