2022-01-20-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_Council_worried_about_a_risk_of_higher_medium-run_inflation_3页_192kb

Eurozone inflation is a primary focus for the ECB Governing Council, with discussions highlighting a shift from viewing it as temporary to potentially persistent higher inflation driven by factors like energy prices and supply-side bottlenecks. The Council remains divided internally: doves caution against premature policy tightening due to weak wage growth and risk of inflation falling below the 2% target, while hawks stress the danger of inflation expectations deanchoring if inflation continues. Growth outlook is broadly balanced but affected by Omicron and terms-of-trade shocks, with no confirmed wage-price spiral yet. ECB recommends a flexible, data-driven monetary policy approach, maintaining support while potentially recalibrating via tools like APP and PEPP purchases. If inflation persists, early tightening could be considered, but full recovery of inflation to pre-pandemic levels is expected in 2023-2024.