20150914-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_288kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the Asia property market, focusing on residential and commercial segments across China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. It includes key news, market performance, upcoming events, and insights from Goldman Sachs' research team.

Key News and Updates

China

• Residential Market: 23 out of 30 cities with data saw volume increases (median +12% week-on-week), while 6 cities experienced price increases (median +2% week-on-week). On a year-on-year basis, 25 cities saw volume increases (median +48%) and 10 cities saw price increases (median +6%).
• Industrial Output: Rose to 6.1% yoy in August, slightly below expectations of 6.5%. This indicates a slowdown in growth momentum.
• Fiscal Stimulus: China is considering over Rmb 1tn in fiscal stimulus over the next three years to boost investment projects.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 374 primary residential units sold in the week ending Sep 13, down 46% from the prior week but 47% above the 3-month average.
• Secondary Market Prices: Flat wow as of Sep 6, but up 10.1% ytd.
• Henderson Land: Plans to offload 8 non-core properties for HK$32.3bn.
• Land Bidding: 20 bids received for a low-density residential site in Tuen Mun, with market estimates of land price reaching up to HK$970mn or HK$8,500psf.

Japan

• Office Vacancy: Aug office vacancy in Tokyo central 5 wards was 4.72% (up from 4.89% in Jul), marking 4 consecutive months of increase. Rent per tsubo per month increased to ¥17,490 (+4.55% yoy, +0.13% mom).
• Used Condo Sales: 2,415 units closed in August (yoy +14%), with unit prices at JPY 448,200 per sqm (yoy +0.4%).
• Housing Orders: Major housing companies saw increases in orders, mainly driven by unit price increases.

India

• Property Transactions: Declining for years, leading to reduced cash flows for developers. Moody's report highlights the impact of subdued demand and rising unsold inventory.

Singapore

• General Election: The People's Action Party won with 69.9% of the popular vote, up 10pp from the last election.
• Capitagreen: Committed occupancy rose to 83% from 80% in June. The Grade A office tower is set to TOP in December.
• Condo Rents: Down 5.7% YoY and 3.1% YTD due to increasing private home completions.

Market Performance

Price Performance (Market-cap weighted)

Top 5 Performers of the Week

Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn)

Sell/Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn)

Upcoming Events

Key Research for the Week

• China: Property FAI yoy turned negative; low mortgage rates boosted sales.
• Japan: Tokyo CBD vacancy rate dropped to 4.72%, lowering end-15E to 4.57%.
• Sun Hung Kai Properties: FY16 largely secured, more sales expected for FY17.
• Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust: Adjusting estimates due to the acquisition of Shanghai Hongjia Tower.
• Sunac China Holdings: Announced strategic cooperation with Yurun Group.

Summary of Key Insights

• China: Residential market shows mixed performance with volume growth and modest price increases, but industrial output and fixed-asset investment indicate a slowdown.
• Hong Kong: Residential sales declined week-on-week but remained above the 3-month average. Secondary market prices were flat wow but up ytd.
• Japan: Office vacancy in Tokyo central 5 wards increased for 4 months, but rent prices continued to rise.
• India: Declining property transactions are affecting developers' cash flows and inventory levels.
• Singapore: Political stability with PAP's election win and rising occupancy rates for Capitagreen.

Analysts and Contact Information

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA (852) 2978-6102; Janet Lu (852) 2978-1642; Alex Ye (852) 2978-6666
• India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.