20220506-招银国际-美团-W-03690.HK-Looking_beyond_2Q22E_epidemic_disruptions_4页_854kb

Meituan (3690 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an equity research update on Meituan, focusing on its financial performance, market outlook, and investment ratings. It highlights the company's expected performance for 1Q22 and forecasts for FY22-24, while also presenting key financial metrics, shareholding structure, and market performance data.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue

• 1Q22E: Expected to grow by +22% YoY, with adj. net loss at RMB5.0bn.
• Segment Growth:
  • Food Delivery: +15% YoY, with adj. OPM at 6.0%.
  • In-store, Hotel & Travel: +15% YoY, with adj. OPM at 41%.
  • New Initiatives: +41% YoY, with net loss at RMB9.5bn.

Earnings

• Adj. Net Profit (1Q22E): RMB-5.0bn.
• Adj. EPS (1Q22E): RMB-0.78.
• Consensus Adj. EPS (1Q22E): RMB-0.76.

Financial Forecast

Key Ratios

• P/S (Price-to-Sales): 4.0 (FY22E), 3.0 (FY23E), 2.4 (FY24E).
• ROE (Return on Equity): 12.0% (FY22E), 10.3% (FY24E).
• Adj. Net Margin: -5.4% (FY22E), 2.5% (FY23E), 5.7% (FY24E).
• Operating Margin: -7.1% (FY22E), 0.9% (FY23E), 4.7% (FY24E).

Market Outlook

• Epidemic Impact: The 2Q22E softness is anticipated due to the resurgence of the epidemic, but Meituan is expected to benefit from the upcoming Shanghai reopening and stabilization of COVID cases.
• Seasonality & Growth: New initiatives are expected to grow by +41% YoY, although they may decelerate due to soft seasonality and the epidemic.
• Gross Profit Margin: Expected to improve continuously, with higher ASP and GPM under industry consolidation.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY (Maintain).
• Target Price: HK$250.0 (Previous TP: HK$250.0).
• Upside Potential: +51.5% from current price (HK$165.0).

Shareholding Structure

• Tencent: 19.27%
• Sequoia Capital: 5.0%
• Baillie Gifford: 5.0%

Stock Performance

Analyst Disclosures

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal views and that they have no financial interest in the securities.
• The analyst confirms that they did not trade in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and will not trade within 3 business days after.
• CMBIGM or its affiliates have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in the report, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Important Disclosures

• The report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon without independent evaluation.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and may not be suitable for all investors.
• The report is distributed in Singapore by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, and may not be provided to non-accredited investors without legal responsibility.

Conclusion

Meituan is expected to deliver solid performance in 1Q22 despite the impact of the epidemic. The company is positioned to benefit from lockdown relaxation and is viewed as a key player in the recovery. While the analyst has slightly trimmed revenue and margin forecasts for FY22-24E, the target price remains unchanged, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential.