世界银行-索马里经济更新，第九版：应对气候变化挑战促进经济增长（英）-2024-68页_5mb

报告摘要

SOMALIA ECONOMIC UPDATE JUNE 2024: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Key Economic Developments

GDP Growth: Somalia’s GDP expanded by 3.1% in 2023, recovering from a 2.4% growth in 2022, driven by improved rainfall and livestock exports.
Inflation: Inflation eased to 6.1% in 2023, supported by declining global commodity prices and stronger agricultural output.
Fiscal Performance: The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) posted a small budget surplus in 2023, but domestic revenues remain low, with donor grants accounting for 55% of total revenues.

Climate Change Vulnerability

Somalia is ranked as the most climate-vulnerable country globally, with high exposure to droughts, floods, and heat stress.
Over 60% of the population relies on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and livestock, making them highly vulnerable to climate shocks.
Extreme weather events, such as the 2020–2023 drought, caused widespread displacement, food insecurity, and economic disruption.

Key Findings and Risks

Economic Impact: Climate disasters reduce agricultural productivity, increase poverty, and exacerbate conflicts over resources.
Social Vulnerability: Poorer populations, rural communities, women, and youth are disproportionately affected by climate shocks.
Climate Policy: Somalia’s climate policy framework is still underdeveloped, requiring stronger integration of climate adaptation into national development plans.

Medium-Term Outlook

Real GDP growth is projected to reach 3.7% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025, supported by good rainfall, global commodity easing, and fiscal reforms.
Growth risks include global slowdown, climate shocks, and security threats.

Policy Recommendations

Strengthen Climate Resilience:
- Invest in disaster risk management, early warning systems, and climate-adaptive agriculture.
- Promote water conservation, sustainable land management, and renewable energy.
Fiscal Reforms:
- Diversify revenue sources, improve domestic tax collection, and reduce over-dependence on donor funds.
- Control wage and security spending to free up resources for investments.
Enhance Disaster Response:
- Establish a unified national disaster management agency (SODMA) to coordinate emergency response.
- Expand social protection programs to cushion climate-induced poverty.

Conclusion

Somalia has made progress in debt relief and economic reforms but remains highly vulnerable to climate change. Addressing climate risks through inclusive, resilient policies is critical for achieving sustainable growth and poverty reduction.

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