20230630-招银国际-波司登-03998.HK-FY23_results_missed_and_a_moderate_outlook_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Key Findings from FY23 Results:

Bosideng's FY23 results missed analyst expectations due to COVID-19 impacts, slower sales in womenswear, and weaker wholesale performance.
Sales increased by 3% YoY to RMB 16.8 billion, net profit rose by 4% YoY to RMB 21.4 billion (missing estimates by 9%).
Core income grew by 7% YoY, driven by a low base, innovative products, and store productivity improvements, but concerns remain over competition and weather conditions.

Analyst Recommendation:

Maintain BUY rating with a reduced target price to HK$3.78 (down from HK$4.07), reflecting FY24E-25E profit cuts of 7-8% due to the shortfall and higher-than-expected financial supports.
Justification: Believes the worst is over, and share price has retreated significantly, with a 16% upside potential from current price.

Future Outlook (FY24E-FY25E):

Forecast 15% sales growth (1H23 YoY growth of 8% and -1% due to COVID), supported by offline recovery, new retail channels (e-commerce), and product innovation.
Expect wholesale sales to rebound strongly due to low inventory levels.
GP margin is projected to flatten or slightly increase, while OP margin could rise from operating leverage and reduced distributor supports.
NP margin growth expected at 18.8% for FY24E, with a NP CAGR of 16% over FY23E-FY26E.

Key Metrics:

Current P/E: 12.0x (FY24E).
Target price: HK$3.78, offering a 16.3% upside.
Dividend yield: 6.2% (FY23A).
Financial highlights: Revenue estimated at HK$19.3 billion for FY24E, NP margin flattening concerns slightly.

Valuation and Comparison:

Valued at 12x FY24E P/E, with a 5-year average P/E of 16x, compared to a buy rating.
Peer comparison shows average P/E of 9.8x, but Bosideng is positioned to meet growth expectations despite risks.

Risks and Caveats:

Cautious due to high competition, weather variability, and potential margin pressures from higher taxes and A&P expenses.
Long-term growth confidence from management, with a 14% CAGR over five years and plans for product category expansion and premiumization.

For detailed financial data, earnings breakdowns, and assumptions, refer to the full report.

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