20231129-招银国际-波司登-03998.HK-1H24_results_beat_and_a_resilient_strategy_11页_1mb

Bosideng (3998 HK) - 1H24 Results and Analysis

Performance Overview

• Sales and Net Profit for H12024: Increased by 21% and 25% YoY to RMB7.5 billion and RMB1.2 billion, surpassing management's guidance and CMBI estimates.
• Key Drivers: Success of new products (e.g., sun-protective clothing, ultralight down apparel) and improved store productivity; online sales grew 24%, outpacing industry trends.
• Inventory Management: Inventory days reduced to 160, supporting sales growth without wholesale slowdown.

Analyst Recommendation

• Maintain BUY rating; raise target price from HK$3.78 to HK$3.86, offering a 19.3% upside.
• Earnings Revisions: Net profit for FY24E-FY26E revised up by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.5%, due to better-than-expected H1 performance.

Valuation

• Current P/E: 12x (FY24E), P/B: 2.1x; dividend yield of 6%.
• Peer Comparison: Outperforms peers in valuation metrics like P/E and ROE.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth Strategy: Focus on core products, category expansion, and CNY 2024 opportunity; expected to achieve 14%+ three-year sales CAGR.
• Mitigating Weaknesses: Addressing macro risks and potential warm winter through product innovation and market share gains.
• Financial Health: Improved operating margins; stable liquidity with current ratio of 2.2x.

Key Metrics