2018假日预测报告（英文版）-11mb

报告摘要

Retail Unwrapped 2018 Holiday Predictions Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Holiday Predictions Report by Adobe provides insights into the U.S. retail landscape during the holiday shopping season, focusing on online retail trends, consumer behavior, and the impact of various factors on sales and revenue.

Key Findings

Online Holiday Retail Approaching $125B

Online holiday shopping revenue (Nov-Dec) is projected to be $124.1B, a 14.8% increase from 2017.
Over 1 in 6 retail dollars will be spent online in 2018.
The Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period will account for $23.4B or 19% of online holiday shopping.
Cyber Monday is expected to lead with $7.8B in revenue and 17.6% year-over-year growth.
Three hours on Cyber Monday (7pm-10pm PST) bring in as much revenue as an average day.
Smartphones will account for 25% of revenue and 30% of traffic on Cyber Monday.

Consumer Behavior

44% of consumers prefer to do their online holiday shopping on big days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
47% of shoppers visit a store to browse products they intend to buy online.
25% fewer consumers consult social media for gift ideas compared to two years ago.
1 in 7 of holiday spending is on gifts for the buyer themselves.
1 in 3 consumers plan to spend more on experiences than on physical items.
10% of gifts received are returned, with 18% more returns during the holiday season.
13% of holiday spending is on self-purchases.

Mobile and App Shopping

Smartphones will account for 48% of online visits and 27% of purchases.
Mobile app users are 2X more likely to convert compared to website users.
30% more revenue is generated from mobile app users than from traditional web users.
3X more mobile app shoppers have made recent purchases.
BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In Store) is growing, with 119% increase in volume since January.
BOPIS orders have 1.9 items on average, compared to 2.7 items for typical online orders.
Smartphones are less likely to complete the checkout process, with 20% less conversion compared to desktops.

Advertising and Pricing Trends

Display Ad CPMs rise by 11% during the holiday season.
Ads are most valuable in the Northeast region, followed by Southwest, West, Midwest, and Southeast.
100 million calories of eggnog were consumed during the holiday season.

Product Trends

Top 1% of products drive 54% of online sales, increasing to 70% during the holidays.
4K TVs are the norm, with 83% of TVs sold being 4K, showing 45% YoY growth.
Toys remain a top category, with "surprise" toys seeing 2X growth in 2017.
Video game consoles show a retro trend, with Nintendo selling 58% of all consoles, driven by the Switch.

Retailer Strategies

Retailers should adapt to mobile-first shopping and focus on enhancing mobile checkout.
Storefronts and in-store experiences will still play a crucial role, especially for BOPIS and experiences.
Recurring customers are more valuable, especially for large and pure-play retailers, who see 40% more revenue from them than brick-and-click counterparts.
Voice assistants are used for product research, list creation, and price comparison, but fewer users actually place orders via voice.

Summary of Key Insights

Online shopping is growing rapidly, with $124.1B projected for 2018.
Mobile is becoming a dominant shopping channel, especially during Cyber Monday.
BOPIS is gaining traction, with 119% growth since January.
Voice assistants are influencing shopping behavior, even if not directly used for purchases.
Consumer trust is eroding in social media marketing.
Experiences are becoming a popular gift option, with cruise companies seeing 6X more revenue on Cyber Monday.
4K TVs are the standard, with $25% savings during Thanksgiving.
Recurring customers are more valuable, especially for large retailers.
Smart speakers are on the rise, with 33% YoY growth and 50% ownership expected after the holidays.

Conclusion

The 2018 holiday season presents a mix of opportunities and challenges for retailers. With online shopping on the rise, mobile and app usage becoming more critical, and consumer preferences shifting toward experiences and self-purchases, retailers must adapt their strategies to meet these evolving trends. Understanding the shift in device usage, the importance of in-store experiences, and the role of social media and voice assistants can help retailers maximize their holiday revenue.

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