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Canadian Banks Equity Research Summary

Housing Market Performance

Home sales in Canada remained slightly negative in April, declining by 0.1% month-over-month and 9.8% year-over-year due to ongoing trade and tariff uncertainties. Prices were stable, increasing 0.2% month-over-month but still down 3.9% year-over-year. Factors like the Bank of Canada's steady rates and reduced new listings contributed to weaker sales activity.

Key Data Highlights

• The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 46.8%, below the long-term average of 55%.
• Months of inventory remained constant at 5.1, aligning with historical norms.
• Housing starts rebounded by over 30% in April, driven by provincial-specific increases in Quebec and Prairie regions.
• Average home prices turned positive in Canada and strengthened south of the 49th parallel, though U.S. data shows mixed trends.

Impact on Banks' Lending Portfolios

Canadian banks' residential mortgage portfolios grew slightly, with BNS and NA showing strong sequential growth, while RY and CM saw moderate increases. However, mortgage volumes are expected to decline in the short term due to persistent uncertainties, despite offsets from renewals. Forecasts show modest growth for some banks, but risks from housing market volatility cap overall momentum.

Analyst Recommendations and Valuations

Jefferies assigns ratings based on growth outlook, price potential, and risk. Key equity ratings include:

• Buy: EQB Inc, Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB)
• Hold: Most banks, including BNS, CM, TD
• Underperform: LB declined in some metrics but is rated Buy; others held steady
  Price targets and discount rates reflect fundamentals, with risks including economic headwinds and currency fluctuations.

Key Risks and Notes

Ongoing trade uncertainties, inflation risks, and housing market volatility could impact bank revenues. Analysts highlight conflicts of interest in research due to business relationships with covered companies. Disclosure notes emphasize that past performance does not guarantee future results, and investments carry inherent risks.