美国企业研究所-AEI住房市场指标，2023年3月（英）-57页_2mb

AEI Housing Market Indicators (HMI) Analysis Summary

Overview

The AEI Housing Market Indicators (HMI) provides accurate, timely metrics for tracking the U.S. housing market through various indicators. These metrics transform raw data into actionable insights, aiding in the analysis of market trends, boom-bust cycles, and policy impacts. Developed by Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter, the HMI draws from multiple data sources, including HMDA, public records, and agency datasets to offer comprehensive coverage at national, state, metro, and micro levels.

Key Metrics and Data Sources

The HMI encompasses multiple indicators:

• Mortgage Default Rate: Tracks default risk for agency loans based on historical stress tests, using risk buckets for credit score, CLTV, and DTI.
• Home Price Appreciation (HPA): Measures quality-adjusted price changes, segmented by price tiers (low, low-medium, medium-high, high) to account for leverage-dependent trends.
• New Construction Sales: Monitors new home sales at fine geographic levels, estimating supply deficiencies.
• Land Price and Shares: Adjusts land shares to predict boom-bust cycles, based on periodic updates from prior years.
• Price Tier System: Defined quarterly at the metro level, using FHA sales prices and GSE loan limits to segment market access.
• NTB/FTB Ratios: Compares sale prices and income for first-time buyers (FTBs) and repeat buyers (RBs), highlighting affordability gaps.

Data sources include Public Records, HMDA, FHA Snapshot, CoreLogic, and Optimal Blue for near-real-time insights.

Recent Market Trends and Findings

• Default Rates: The Composite NMDR has ticked up since 2022, signaling looser lending, with FHA shares rising significantly. DTIs are at historical highs, reversing pandemic-era prudence.
• Home Price Appreciation: YoY HPA declined in February 2023 to 3.4%, but remained positive, with stronger pressure in lower tiers. Supply constraints persist, supporting seller markets.
• Inventory Levels: Months' supply dropped to 3.4, below pre-pandemic averages, continuing tight inventory conditions.
• Refinance Activity: Cash-out refi volumes plummeted due to high rates, while purchase volumes lagged pre-pandemic levels.
• Price Tiers: A widened gap in HPA between tiers indicates market segmentation, with upper tiers more sensitive to Fed policies.

Projections and Future Outlook

• Forecasts suggest moderate HPA declines, with base case projections of near-zero change for Dec. 2023, driven by supply, job growth, and low foreclosures.
• Case studies (e.g., Seattle) demonstrate that zoning reforms and higher density conversions enhance affordability and filtering.
• Policy warnings include risks from cash-out refinancing, which can trap homeowners in higher payments and exacerbate financial strain.

Methodological Notes

• Price Tier Calculation: Sets quarterly tiers at the metro level, using FHA data and loan limits to define affordability.
• HPA Index: Uses a "quasi" repeat sales approach with AVRs to stabilize for quality shifts.
• Enhanced Events: Upcoming webinars focus on light-touch density and supply constraints, leveraging recent data.
• Optimal Blue Integration: Provides near-real-time rate lock data, advancing trend detection in purchase activity and HPA.

Webinar and Event Registration

Details for the "Good Neighbors" convening highlight events promoting housing supply solutions and displacement mitigation through tools like the HEAT Toolkit.

This summary captures the core components of the AEI HMI report, emphasizing data sources, metrics, and actionable market insights without additional commentary.