2025-06-15-Jefferies-住房市场图表手册_5月房屋销售转为正值_价格保持稳定_9页_420kb

Housing Market Update (May 2025)

• Home sales turned positive in May after seven consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, led by improved trade conditions and mortgage rules. Sales increased 3.6% month-over-month but remain 4.3% lower year-over-year.
• Average home prices held steady, rising 1.65% from April but declining 1.8% year-over-year. New listings rose 3.1%, and the sales-to-new listings ratio edged up to 47.0%.

Bank Mortgage Volumes

• In Q2, banks' domestic lending portfolios (mortgages and HELOCs) grew by 0.9% sequentially and 3.3% year-over-year, driven by positive sales activity.
• Forecasts for Q3 indicate continued challenges due to past rate uncertainty but expect positive growth; consolidated mortgage volumes are projected to grow 0.7% from Q3 and 2.3% year-over-year.

Market and Forecast Insights

• Despite uncertainties, including weak condo conditions in Toronto and Vancouver, expert opinions suggest potential reprieve for banks in Q3, with home sales likely offsetting some pressures.
• Analyst ratings from Jefferies reflect mixed views: EQB and RY are rated BUY, while others like BNS and NA are HOLD, with some showing negative quarter-over-quarter changes but stable long-term trends.

Summary Implications
The positive housing momentum could support banks' lending portfolios, but risks from global trade and economic factors remain a concern for sustained growth. Forecasts remain cautious but optimistic for the short term.