2022-05-31-美国企业研究所-AEI住房市场指标_2022年6月（英）_52页_2mb

AEI Housing Market Indicators Summary

Key Indicators and Methods

• National Mortgage Default Rate (NMDR): Tracks mortgage risk using stress-test methodology. Covers government-guaranteed loans and provides timely, accurate data. Default rates vary significantly by loan risk tier (e.g., 1.1% for very low-risk to 56.2% for very high-risk).
• Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index: "Quasi" repeat sales index using public records and Automated Valuation Models (AVM). Tracks HPA by price tiers and geography. April 2022 HPA was 17.3% YoY, driven by supply constraints, low rates, and work-from-home trends. HPA moderated by June 2022 to 14.6% but remained high.
• Agency Purchase Loan Market Shares: FHA dominates low and low-medium price tiers (40-60%), while GSEs share 80% in these tiers. High-stressed default rates for FHA loans (latest 29.0%).
• Months' Supply of Inventory: Inventory is extremely low (0.7 months in April 2022), exacerbating price increases. Sales inventories increased slightly in April but remain below pre-2021 levels.

Price Tier Differences

• Low/low-medium tiers: Lower HPA due to more supply.
• Medium-high/high tiers: Higher HPA driven by affordability for higher-income borrowers, policy interventions (e.g., GSE appraisal waivers), and refinancing.

Policy and Market Trends

• FHFA Policy Discretion: Different FHFA directors interpreted policies vastly differently, impacting market risk volumes. Current focus on "chunky peanut butter" policy risks (targeting lower-income borrowers) raises concerns about wealth gap.
• Refinance Trends: GSE appraisal waivers are down (26% in March 2022 from peak), but used strategically in refinance; FHA cash-out refi volume rising.

Supply and RentsAdjustment

• Inventory Depletion: Supply is at a series low, with April 2022 inventory still 33% below pre-2020 peaks. This fuels rapid HPA and affordability challenges.
• Rate Increases: A mortgage rate of 6%+ is needed to moderate HPA to 3-4%, but current rates (5.25%) sustain teens-level HPA. Rent growth (5%) affects affordability but housing remains more sensitive driver.

Key Takeaways for Macro Trends

• Housing market risks are high due to leverage and inventory shortages. Market trends are interconnected, with policy interventions altering outcomes. High HPA and low supply persist despite seasonal and short-term fluctuations.

Data Sources and Methodology

• Major datasets include FHFA data, FHA, PLS, CoreLogic, Zillow.
• The NMDR enhances traditional indices by covering more loans and providing stress-testing capabilities.
• Price tiers determined by market position and financing access to capture heterogeneity in housing market behavior.