2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo_Third_Review_of_the_Three_56页_754kb

报告摘要

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Third Review of the ECF Arrangement and Program Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the third review of the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including the financing assurances review and request for modification of performance criteria, conducted by the IMF staff in collaboration with DRC authorities. The discussions took place in February–March 2011 and concluded with the approval of the third review and the fourth disbursement of SDR 49.493 million. The staff report was completed on April 14, 2011, and the Executive Board endorsed the findings and recommendations.

Main Views and Key Points

1. Economic Performance

Real GDP growth reached 7% in 2010, up from 2.8% in 2009, driven by mining, construction, and tertiary activities.
Inflation fell to below 10% by year-end, supported by moderate global food price increases and exchange rate stability.
Terms of trade improved, and copper prices were expected to remain favorable, helping maintain growth at around 6.5% in 2011.
Gross international reserves increased to US$1.3 billion at end-2010, and are projected to reach US$1.5 billion by end-2011.

2. Fiscal Performance

The domestic fiscal balance improved to a surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2010, despite a shortfall in external financial support.
Cash basis fiscal deficit is expected to widen by 0.4% of GDP in 2011, mainly due to unprogrammed external budget support.
The government is using budgetary reserves and external financing to cover the increased fiscal costs from fuel price adjustments and pro-poor spending.

3. Program Implementation

The DRC authorities met all quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks at the end of December 2010.
Structural reforms in the financial sector and extractive industries are progressing, with 30 measures implemented or under way.
The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) has taken steps to recapitalize and improve governance, including legal and regulatory reforms and enhancing transparency.

4. Policy Discussions

Fuel and food price increases were a major concern, as they threatened social stability and inflation.
The staff urged the DRC to pass through higher oil prices to domestic fuel prices to curb inflationary pressures.
The government agreed to a partial pass-through of fuel prices, with a 4% increase in late March, and pro-poor spending on health and education.

5. Program Risks

Higher world oil prices could lead to unsustainable fiscal costs and inflationary pressures.
Political and social instability from the upcoming elections may cause fiscal slippages.
The security situation remains fragile, with rebel activity in the east and an armed attack on the President’s residence during the mission.

6. IMF Recommendations

The IMF supports the modification of performance criteria for net foreign assets (NFA) and net domestic assets (NDA) of the BCC.
The program remains fully financed with no accumulation of domestic debt or arrears.
The IMF encourages timely implementation of revenue-enhancing measures and fiscal discipline.

Key Information

Program Duration: Three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
Access Amount: SDR 346.45 million (65% of quota).
Completion of HIPC: The DRC reached the completion point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative in early July 2010.
Disbursement: The fourth disbursement of SDR 49.493 million is approved.
Fiscal Adjustments: The domestic fiscal balance improved due to cuts in public investment, reduced arrears, and delayed wage payments.
Exchange Rate Policy: A flexible exchange rate is recommended to help manage external shocks and limit reserve accumulation.
Reserve Coverage: US$20–25 million of the problem bank's deposits will be covered in 2011, and the rest in 2012.

Main Recommendations

Continue fiscal discipline to meet program objectives in 2011.
Maintain the fiscal anchor (no central bank financing of the government) to prevent inflationary pressures.
Accelerate public financial management reforms, including the implementation of the new procurement code.
Strengthen the BCC’s governance and independence, including recapitalization and focus on core functions.
Ensure transparency and accountability in extractive industries, with progress made on 30 reform measures.

Conclusion

The DRC has made significant progress in macroeconomic stabilization and program implementation, supported by improved terms of trade and better policy execution. However, challenges remain, including fiscal risks from fuel price adjustments, inflationary pressures, and political instability. The IMF encourages continued reforms and discipline to ensure the program's sustainability and long-term debt management.