20250608-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_27页_3mb

Fuel Oil Market Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the global fuel oil market, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and market spreads. It is prepared by GTJA Futures Research Institute and authored by Kefang Liang, an analyst with advisory code Z0019111, dated 2025年6月8日.

Main Points and Key Information

Price Trends and Spread Analysis

• Global Fuel Oil Price Fluctuation: The fluctuation range of global fuel oil prices has narrowed this week, with a slight rebound after an initial decline. The crack and monthly spread have declined from high levels.
• Crude Oil Price Impact: The strengthening trend of crude oil prices has led to a decline in fuel oil crack from high levels.
• Market Segmentation:
  • HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil): The demand outlook is still positive, with a high probability of no significant pullback in prices despite a lack of momentum to reach new highs.
  • LSFO (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil): Prices in the Asia Pacific market are expected to be supported due to stable shipment quantities from Brazil and Indonesia, and potential export reductions in the European market.
  • LU (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil): The resumption of production by state-owned refineries in China is expected to increase the supply of spot goods at coastal ports, which may suppress LU prices, cracks, and monthly spreads.

Supply and Production

• Refinery Utilization:
  • Chinese Refineries: Data on CDU (Crude Distillation Unit) utilization for both state-owned and independent refineries is available.
• Global Refinery Maintenance:
  • CDU, Hydrocracker, FCC, and Coker: Maintenance schedules are provided, indicating that some refineries in Russia are undergoing maintenance from June, which may offset the supply recovery in the Middle East next week.
• Production and Supply:
  • China's Fuel Oil Production: Monthly data on HSFO and LSFO production is provided, highlighting the production volumes of both types of fuel oil.

Demand Analysis

• Bunker Fuel Sales:
  • Singapore: Bunker fuel sales data is available, indicating the demand for fuel oil in the maritime sector.
• China's Fuel Oil Demand:
  • Table Apparent Consumption: Monthly data on the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China is provided.
  • Port LSFO Consumption: Monthly data on actual LSFO consumption at Chinese ports is also included.

Inventory Levels

• Global Fuel Oil Inventory:
  • Singapore: High sulfur and low sulfur fuel oil inventory levels are monitored.
  • Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA): Inventory data for the European region is provided.
  • Fujairah: Inventory data for this key hub is available.
  • United States: Inventory data for the USGC and New York Harbour is included.

Market Analysis

• Asian Market: Prices for both HSFO and LSFO in Singapore are analyzed.
• European Market: Prices for HSFO and LSFO in the NWE (Northwest Europe) and Mediterranean regions are detailed.
• American Market: Prices for HSFO and LSFO in the USGC and New York Harbour are presented.
• OTC Swap Market: Swap prices for HSFO and LSFO in NWE and Singapore are included.
• Chinese Future Market: Data on the FU and LU futures contracts, including close prices for the main and next-month contracts, is provided.
• Physical Market Spreads:
  • HSFO-LSFO FOB Price Spread in Singapore: Indicates the price difference between high and low sulfur fuel oil.
  • Viscosity Spread in Singapore: Reflects the demand from the power generation sector.
• Global Fuel Oil Crack: Analysis of HSFO and LSFO crack prices in Singapore and NWE, showing the relationship between fuel oil and crude oil.
• Term Structure of Fuel Oil Swaps: Calendar spreads for HSFO and LSFO in Singapore and NWE are included, reflecting market expectations for future prices.

Import and Export Data

• China's Fuel Oil Trade:
  • Monthly Import and Export Amounts: Data on the import and export of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) is provided.
• Global HSFO and LSFO Trade:
  • HSFO: Weekly import and export data is available.
  • LSFO: Weekly import and export data is also included, indicating the global trade flows of low sulfur fuel oil.

Analyst Certification

• The analyst holds a valid futures investment consulting qualification and ensures the data used in the report is sourced from compliance channels.
• The analysis is based on professional understanding and aims to be independent, objective, and fair.
• The conclusions are not influenced by any third party.

Disclaimers

• The report is for reference only and is not intended as investment advice.
• The views and information are based on the analyst's judgment and may change over time.
• The company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided.
• The report is the property of GTJA Futures Research and may not be reproduced, copied, or distributed without written permission.
• If quoted or published, the source must be credited as "GTJA Futures Research", and the content should not be altered or abbreviated.

Copyright Notice

• The copyright of the report is solely owned by GTJA Futures Research.
• Unauthorized reproduction, copying, publishing, or quotation is prohibited.
• The report should be used only within the permitted scope and with proper attribution.

Conclusion

The report highlights that supply-side changes are now the primary driver of fuel oil price trends. While HSFO demand remains strong, LSFO prices are supported by stable supply and potential export reductions in Europe. The maintenance schedules in Russia may counteract the positive supply recovery from the Middle East. Investors are advised to make their own decisions based on the information provided and to consult with professionals before making any investment decisions.