20150915-USDA-Rice_Outlook__2015.9.15_24页_340kb

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-15i, Sept. 15, 2015)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global rice production, supply, use, and price forecasts for the 2015/16 market year. It highlights key factors influencing production and trade, including weather conditions, market demand, and price trends.

U.S. 2015/16 Production Forecast

• Total Production Forecast: Lowered to 189.5 million cwt, a 15.5 million cwt reduction from the previous estimate.
• Reasons for Reduction: Lower planted area (down 6% to 2.61 million acres) and lower yield (down 98 pounds per acre from previous forecast).
• State-Level Production:
  • Arkansas: Largest contributor to the reduction, down 14% to 95.9 million cwt.
  • Louisiana: Down 15% to 27.7 million cwt, due to both area and yield declines.
  • Mississippi: Down 21% to 11.1 million cwt, primarily due to smaller plantings.
  • Missouri: Down 27% to 10.6 million cwt, due to smaller plantings and lower yields.
  • Texas: Down 7% to 10.0 million cwt, with water restrictions impacting production.
  • California: Down 4% to 34.1 million cwt, affected by drought and water restrictions.

U.S. 2015/16 Supply and Use Forecast

• Total Supply Forecast: Reduced by 14.9 million cwt to 263.6 million cwt, the smallest since 2011/12.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Lowered by 4.0 million cwt to 125.0 million cwt, 3% below a year earlier.
• Exports: Lowered by 10.0 million cwt to 97.0 million cwt, 3% smaller than the year earlier.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 2% to 41.5 million cwt, 14% below a year earlier.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Down to 18.7%, compared to 21.2% a year earlier.

U.S. 2015/16 Price Forecast

• Long-Grain SAFP: Raised to $12.80–$13.80 per cwt, up $1.30 on both ends from last month, and $1.00 above the 2014/15 range.
• Medium- and Short-Grain SAFP: Lowered to $17.50–$18.50 per cwt, down 30 cents on both ends from last month. Midpoint is $18.00, slightly higher than the 2014/15 range of $17.90.
• Regional Price Trends:
  • California: $20.50–$21.50 per cwt.
  • Southern U.S.: $14.00–$15.00 per cwt.
  • All-Rice SAFP: $14.20–$15.20 per cwt, up 80 cents from last month.

Global Outlook

• Global Production Forecast: Lowered to 475.8 million tons (milled basis), a 2.9 million ton decrease from last month, marking the first decline since 2009/10.
• Production Declines: Observed in Burma, China, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the U.S., due to adverse weather, lower yields, and smaller crops.
• Production Increases: Observed in Australia, Chile, and the EU, driven by higher yields and larger crops.
• Global Ending Stocks: Projected at 90.2 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08, down 11.7 million tons from the previous forecast.
• Global Trade Forecast for 2016: At 42.2 million tons (milled basis), slightly below this year's trade and down 0.1 million tons from last month's forecast.

Key Export and Import Trends

• Exports:
  • Burma: Lowered to 1.8 million tons, 10% below this year's level.
  • U.S.: Lowered to 3.25 million tons, 3% below the year-earlier revised level.
  • India: Raised to 9.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons.
  • Australia: Raised to 330,000 tons, up 30,000 tons.
• Imports:
  • Indonesia: Raised to 1.3 million tons, up 200,000 tons.
  • Chile: Lowered to 120,000 tons, down 20,000 tons.

Price Trends

• Asia's Export Prices: Continued to drop, with Thailand's regular-milled white rice prices falling ~4% from last month.
• U.S. Long-Grain Prices: Increased due to smaller supply and higher prices for milled rice, while medium- and short-grain prices were slightly lower.

Harvest Progress

• Harvest Pace: Near-normal in most areas, with 35% of the U.S. crop harvested by September 6.
• State-Level Harvest:
  • Arkansas: 30% harvested, up from last year.
  • Louisiana: 90% harvested, ahead of the previous year.
  • Texas: 76% harvested, behind the 5-year average.
  • California: 1% harvested, nearly unchanged from last year.

Historical Context

• U.S. Ending Stocks: Smallest since 2011/12, with Arkansas holding half of all U.S. stocks.
• Global Consumption: Up ~1% from a year earlier, with China accounting for over half the increase.
• Global Trade: Third largest on record in 2016, though not fully offset by reduced exports from Burma, Cambodia, and the U.S.

Summary of Key Factors

• Weather Conditions: Drought in California and Texas, excessive rain and heat in the South, and flooding in Burma impacted production.
• Market Dynamics: Smaller U.S. supplies and higher prices led to reduced export forecasts.
• Global Trends: First decline in global production since 2009/10, with consumption still outpacing production.