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Rice Outlook Summary (USDA, November 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2017/18 market year and projections for 2018. It includes updates on production, imports, exports, prices, and stocks, as well as analysis of regional and global trends.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

• Total U.S. Rice Production: Lowered to 178.4 million cwt, a 20% decrease from the previous year.
• Yield: 7,461 pounds per acre, 9 pounds below the October forecast, but 3% higher than the previous year.
• Harvested Area: Remains at 2.39 million acres, 23% below the previous year and the lowest since 1987/88.

Production by Class

• Long-grain: Lowered by 144,000 cwt to 126.1 million cwt, a 24% decline from the previous year (smallest since 2011/12).
• Medium- and short-grain: Lowered by 60,000 cwt to 52.24 million cwt, a 9% decline from the previous year (smallest since 2008/09).

Import Forecast

• Total U.S. Rice Imports: Raised by 0.3 million cwt to 24.5 million cwt, a 4% increase from the previous year, the highest on record.
• Long-grain: Accounted for all the upward revision, reaching 21.3 million cwt, up 5% from the previous year.
• Medium- and short-grain: Remained at 3.2 million cwt, nearly unchanged from the previous year.

Export Forecast

• Total U.S. Rice Exports: Lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 104.0 million cwt, a 11% decline from the previous year.
• Long-grain Exports: Lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 74.0 million cwt, a 6% decline from the previous year.
• Medium- and short-grain Exports: Lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 30.0 million cwt, a 21% decline from the previous year.
• Rough-rice Exports: Lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 38.0 million cwt, a 11% decline from the previous year.
• Milled Rice Exports: Remained at 66.0 million cwt, also a 11% decline from the previous year.

Domestic and Residual Use

• Total Domestic and Residual Use: Projected at 115.0 million cwt, 12.5% below the previous year.
• Long-grain Use: Projected at 88.0 million cwt, 12% below the previous year.
• Medium- and short-grain Use: Projected at 27.0 million cwt, 15% below the previous year, the lowest since 1988/89.

Ending Stocks

• Total U.S. Ending Stocks: Projected at 29.9 million cwt, up 2.1 million cwt from the previous forecast but 35% below the previous year, the smallest since 2007/08.
• Long-grain Ending Stocks: Projected at 16.5 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt but 47% below the previous year.
• Medium- and short-grain Ending Stocks: Projected at 9.9 million cwt, up 0.94 million cwt but 14% below the previous year.

Stocks-to-Use Ratio

• Total: Forecast at 13.7%, down from 18.6% in the previous year.
• Long-grain: Forecast at 10.2%, down from 17.4% in the previous year.
• Medium- and short-grain: Forecast at 17.4%, up from 16.5% in the previous year.

Global Outlook

Production Forecast

• Global Rice Production (milled basis): Lowered to 481.2 million tons, a 2.6 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.
• Production Declines: Notable in India, Russia, Peru, and the U.S. due to adverse weather conditions.
• Global Harvested Area: Down 0.7 million hectares, with Bangladesh, China, India, the Philippines, and the U.S. accounting for the majority of the reduction.
• Global Yield: 4.49 tons per hectare, down from 4.52 tons in the previous year.

Trade Forecast

• Global Rice Trade (2018): Projected at 45.1 million tons, the second highest on record, up 0.7 million tons from the previous year.
• Export Increases: Expected from Australia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.
• Export Decreases: Expected from Argentina, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, the U.S., and Uruguay.
• Import Increases: Expected in Bangladesh, Cote d'Ivoire, Madagascar, and the Philippines.
• Import Decreases: Expected in Egypt, Iraq, Kenya, and Sri Lanka.

Price Outlook

U.S. Season-Average Farm Prices (SAFP)

• Long-grain: Forecast at $11.80-$12.80 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends of the range from the previous forecast, but well above the $9.64 per cwt in the previous year.
• Southern Medium- and Short-grain: Forecast at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, also down 20 cents from the previous forecast, but up from the $10.10 per cwt in the previous year.
• California Medium- and Short-grain: Remains at $15.50-$16.50 per cwt, up from $13.70 per cwt in the previous year.
• All Rice: Forecast at $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends from the previous forecast, but higher than the $10.40 per cwt in the previous year.

Monthly Cash Prices (September 2017)

• Long-grain: Reported at $11.20 per cwt, up 60 cents from August, the highest since March 2016.
• California Medium- and Short-grain: Reported at $13.90 per cwt, down 30 cents from August.
• Southern Medium- and Short-grain: Reported at $11.20 per cwt, up 20 cents from August.
• U.S. Medium- and Short-grain: Reported at $13.10 per cwt, down 70 cents from August.

Key Trends and Factors

• U.S. Production: Reduced due to lower yields, especially in Texas, which saw a 500-pound per acre decrease.
• Ratoon Crops: Influenced by field conditions, input costs, and rice prices; Texas and Louisiana had notable impacts.
• Imports: Increased significantly, particularly long-grain from Thailand and India (premium jasmine and basmati rice), with broken kernel rice imports declining.
• Exports: Slowed due to lower demand in Northeast Asia and the Mediterranean, but increased in Mexico and Haiti.
• Global Production: Reduced by 2.6 million tons, with India being the largest contributor to the decline.
• Global Trade: Projected to be the second highest on record, with India and Vietnam increasing exports and Bangladesh and the Philippines increasing imports.

Data Sources and Contact

• Contact: Nathan Childs (nchilds@ers.usda.gov) and Sharon Raszap Skorbiansky (Sharon.Raszap@ers.usda.gov).
• Data: Available via Rice Monthly Tables and Rice Chart Gallery.
• Subscription: ERS e-mail notification service available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx.

Conclusion

The U.S. and global rice markets experienced mixed trends in 2017/18, with U.S. production and exports declining due to lower yields and slower demand, while imports increased, particularly of premium long-grain rice. Global production also saw a decline, but trade was projected to reach its second highest level on record, driven by increased exports from India, Vietnam, and Pakistan and increased imports into Bangladesh, the Philippines, and others. Prices remained relatively stable, with some increases in the long-grain and medium- and short-grain categories.