世界银行：乌克兰战争对全球贸易和投资的影响_84页_12mb

Summary of "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment"

Core Content

The World Bank report "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment" examines the economic consequences of the war on global trade, investment, and competitiveness. It outlines how the conflict has disrupted key sectors and supply chains, particularly in developing countries, and analyzes the long-term implications for the global economy.

Main Points

1. Impact on Trade and Income of Developing Countries

• The war has caused significant economic consequences for many developing countries due to disruptions in trade and rising prices.
• Ukraine and Russia are major global exporters of agricultural commodities and fossil fuels, and their supply disruptions have led to price spikes, affecting global trade and welfare.
• Developing countries that heavily rely on imports from Ukraine and Russia are particularly vulnerable, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.
• The report uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the economic effects, indicating that global income is projected to drop by 0.7 percent, with low-income countries experiencing a 1 percent decline.
• Manufacturing exporters such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico face sharp declines in energy-intensive sectors, while net exporters of crops and fossil fuels benefit from higher prices.

2. Effects on Food Trade

• Ukraine and Russia together account for about 25 percent of global wheat exports and 15 percent of corn and fertilizer exports.
• The war has led to a 40 percent increase in wheat prices since late February, with futures prices rising by over 60 percent.
• Trade policy interventions, including export restrictions and import bans, have further exacerbated food price increases and could lead to a global food crisis.
• Net importers, especially low and low-middle income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, are most affected by higher food costs.

3. Disruptions in Global Logistics and Connectivity

• The war has significantly disrupted trade connectivity, particularly for Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia's access to European ports has been cut, and Ukraine's Black Sea ports are blockaded or occupied, limiting its export routes.
• Reciprocal air space closures between Russia and 36 countries have led to longer routes and higher air freight prices.
• Rail transit through Russia may be slowed by increased compliance checks and could face complete halting due to further sanctions.
• The role of rail in connecting Europe and Asia (especially China) is growing due to maritime disruptions, but the war has affected its efficiency.

4. Impact on Ukraine's Key (Non-Food) Exports and Specific GVCs

• Ukraine is a key supplier of raw materials and intermediate goods for export-oriented industries in other countries.
• Sectors heavily reliant on Ukrainian inputs include steel, heavy manufacturing, semiconductors, and automotive.
• Moldova is the most dependent on Ukrainian imports, followed by Poland and the Czech Republic within the EU.
• Russia plays a major role in supplying primary and intermediate goods for global value chains (GVCs), especially in transport equipment, machinery, and agribusiness.

5. Effects on Russia's Global Value-Chain Participation

• Russia is a critical supplier of raw materials and intermediate goods, especially for GVCs in the early stages of production.
• The war has disrupted its export and import activities, with implications for countries that rely on Russian supply chains.
• The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, are most exposed to these disruptions.

6. Effects on Global FDI

• The war is expected to reduce FDI inflows to neighboring countries and in the energy sector.
• Countries like Armenia, Moldova, and the Kyrgyz Republic, which rely heavily on Russian FDI, may experience a contraction in their existing stock and increased capital outflows.
• European countries, including Finland, Germany, and Norway, have significant investments in Russia's energy sector, making them vulnerable to the war's impact.
• The direct impact of the war on global FDI is limited, but indirect effects due to geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions could be more profound.

7. Effects on Global Tourism

• Tourism in developing countries is significantly affected due to the war, with Russia and Ukraine being major sources of tourists.
• Countries such as Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, and Turkey are highly dependent on Russian and Ukrainian tourists.
• The pandemic saw increased tourism from these countries to destinations like Egypt, Tunisia, Thailand, Cuba, the Maldives, and Tanzania.
• A decline in global tourism will likely slow the post-pandemic recovery, especially due to disrupted flights and consumer uncertainty.

8. Long-Term Effects on Global Value Chains

• The war could lead to a reconfiguration of global value chains as firms reassess security risks.
• There is a risk of a fragmented global trade and investment system, potentially reversing globalization.
• However, the process is likely to be gradual, influenced by factors such as capital costs, wage differentials, and the availability of alternatives.
• Government intervention may be necessary to accelerate a reversal of globalization.

Key Information

• Key Commodity Markets: Ukraine and Russia are among the top global producers and exporters of wheat, corn, barley, sunflower seeds, and sunflower oil.
• Fertilizer and Energy: Russia is a major supplier of fossil fuels and fertilizers, with disruptions affecting global prices and supply chains.
• Trade Policy Impact: Export bans and restrictions have contributed to price surges, particularly in wheat and other cereals.
• CGE Model Findings: The model highlights the asymmetric effects on trade and income, with net exporters benefiting and net importers suffering.
• Regional Exposure: The ECA region, especially countries like Latvia, Moldova, and Kyrgyzstan, shows high dependence on Russian energy and agricultural imports.
• Long-Term Outlook: The long-term effects depend on how governments respond to the geopolitical shifts, with potential structural changes in GVCs and trade patterns.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine has had immediate and severe economic impacts on global trade and investment, especially on developing countries. While some countries benefit from higher prices and increased exports, others face significant challenges due to supply disruptions and rising costs. The long-term implications are uncertain, but there is a risk of a more fragmented global trade system unless supported by strong government intervention. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding these impacts for effective policy-making and economic planning.