国际事务研究院-俄乌战争的战略意义（英）-2024.2-157页_2mb

Russia's invasion of Ukraine generated profound strategic implications for European and transatlantic security, with significant consequences for Italy's defense policy and industry. The war underscored the necessity of decisive action across all domains—land, air, naval, space, cyber, and nuclear—to counter aggression from a state with global power capabilities. Below is a structured summary of the report's key conclusions and recommendations for Italy.

1. NATO Role for Italy and Italian Role in the Alliance

• Strategic Focus: Italy must adapt its participation in NATO to the post-Ukraine war reality, prioritizing collective defense against Russian aggression while balancing European initiatives (EU defense, open strategic autonomy). This includes reinforcing NATO’s deterrence posture, contributing to the nuclear sharing framework (hosting tactical U.S. nuclear assets), and refining military readiness across domains.
• Operational Shifts: Italy should leverage NATO partnerships for security operations beyond Europe (e.g., Africa, Middle East) while fostering alliances with EU and European Union (EU) mechanisms to enhance synergistic efforts.
• Action Plan: Participate in initiatives like the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Combined Space Operations Initiative (CSO); advocate within NATO for multi-domain deterrence, including space and cyber capabilities.

2. EU Defence and Open Strategic Autonomy

• Defense Industrial Base: Italy must boost national investment in defense production—prioritizing joint European industrial programs (EDF, EDIRPA) while championing “open” autonomy through strategic partnerships with allies like the U.S. and U.K. This includes sustained collaboration with non-EU tech leaders to address supply chain and R&D gaps.
• Integration Imperative: Italy must spearhead demand-driven joint procurement projects and align national procurement cycles with EU initiatives to mitigate fragmentation and inertia in its defense ecosystem.

3. Larger and Better Military Budget

• Funding Priorities: Italy requires a commitment to reaching the 2% GDP defense spending target by 2028, funded through multiannual defense programming and procurement cycles. Budget increases should focus on operational readiness, training, maintenance, and personnel modernization.
• Doctrine Refinement: Operational output must reflect defense priorities—training, combat readiness, and industrial synergy—to counter peer threats and enhance resilience against attrition.
• Implementation: Establish peacetime reserves; revise internal allocations toward operational costs; fill infantry, cyber, electronic warfare, and special operations skill gaps.

4. Air Domain

• Air Superiority: Italy must rapidly integrate advanced 5th/6th generation aircraft, long-range precision fires (e.g., hypersonic capabilities), and standoff weapons to counter adversary air threats and preserve territorial integrity.
• IAMD Reinforcement: Strengthen integrated air defenses with layered missile defense systems (Patriot, Aster) and electronic warfare platforms to counter hybrid and conventional threats.
• Responsive Space: Pursue development of redundant satellite constellations and rapid-response launch capabilities ensuring sovereignty and operational resilience.

5. Land Domain

• C4ISR & Battlefield Transparency: Leverage UAS, loitering munitions, and data fusion to empower mission command, dominating urban and semi-urban warfare while enhancing combined arms interoperability.
• High-Low Mass Production: Augment weapon stocks through standardized procurement of affordable systems (e.g., artillery shells, UAVs); adapt reserve components to support mobilization and sustained operations.

6. Naval Domain

• Force Modernization: Prioritize VLS-equipped surface combatants (DDX destroyers) and replenish missile/ammo stocks to sustain high-intensity engagements; develop anti-submarine warfare and counter-drone capabilities.
• Maritime Security: Enhance defense cooperation with regional allies (e.g., Mediterranean partners) addressing naval vulnerabilities while investing in underwater domain awareness.

7. Space Domain

• System Redundancy: Increase satellite numbers and diversify launch providers (e.g., reusable systems) to ensure resilient space operations; counter adversary ASAT and cyber threats via hardened systems and cyber hygiene protocols.

8. Cyber Domain

• Offensive/Defensive Posture: Advance active cyber defense capabilities (including offensive actions) backed by cross-institutional coordination with private firms (public-private partnerships) and skilled personnel.
• Strategic Horizon: Anticipate future cyber threats in multi-domain warfare; promote cyber doctrine integrating NATO/Joint Force synergies.

9. Industrial Dimension

• Defense Industrial Base: Rebuild domestic supply chains, stimulate SME participation, and diversify European partnerships (EU/US frameworks) to sustain warfighting output amid sanctions and disruption.
• Critical Skills: Incentivize STEM education in cybersecurity, space systems, and robotics, aligning industry investments with defense priorities to maintain technological edge.

10. EU Defense Initiatives

• Structural Reforms: Advocate sustained funding and streamlined processes for the EDF/EDIRPA/EDIP framework—essential for European resilience. Promote EU weapon standardization and common platforms to support interoperability and economies of scale.

Nuclear Deterrence, Arms Control & Non-Proliferation

• Nuclear Stability: Italy should promote dialogues resolving strategic arms treaties (New START) publicly; champion multilateral non-proliferation frameworks (NPT, TPNW) while influencing allies against unilateral nuclear escalation risks.

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The conflict revealed that conventional warfare with nuclear implications presents an existential contest requiring preparedness in technological, industrial, and human expertise dimensions across Europe. Italy’s ability to integrate national interests within EU/NATO structures is paramount to preserving European deterrence and defending sovereignty.