2009年-世界发展银行全球_Guatemala_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_12页_3mb

Summary of Agriculture and Climate Change in Guatemala

Core Content

Guatemala, like most Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, has submitted one national communication to the UNFCCC and has a national GHG inventory with 1990 as the base year. The country's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, and land use change and forestry (LUCF) are the largest contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite this, the potential for mitigation through the sector remains largely unexplored. The country has 8 CDM projects, one of which is in agriculture, but the number of agricultural CDM projects is low compared to the region's overall potential.

Main Points

1. Climate Context

• Agricultural Land Use: Around 43% of Guatemala's land is used for agriculture (30% pasture, 13% cultivation), with 36% dedicated to forestry.
• Climate Projections:
  • Temperature increases expected between 1.5°C and 4.5°C by 2050, with May becoming the hottest month.
  • Precipitation reduction, especially in July-September, will intensify heatwaves.
  • Expansion of semi-arid areas due to increased evapo-transpiration.
  • Sea level rise projected between 6.05-7.4cm by 2030, 9.71-13.37cm by 2050, and 17.71-33.25cm by 2100.
• Natural Disasters:
  • Storms and droughts have had significant economic and human impacts.
  • In 2004, Hurricane Stan caused economic losses equivalent to 3.1% of GDP.
  • In 2005, Guatemala ranked second in the list of ten countries most affected by natural disasters in terms of number killed per 100,000 inhabitants.
• Vulnerability:
  • 1.53% of the land is under extremely high drought threat, 3.53% under very high threat, and 5.99% under high threat.

2. Policy Context

• National Communication: Submitted in 2001, it laid the groundwork for policy responses to climate change.
• National Climate Change Program: Operated by the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN), it focuses on climate change analysis, carbon sequestration, and technical support.
• Regional Initiatives:
  • CCAD (Central American Commission on Environment and Development): Manages environmental issues in the region, including climate change.
  • RUTA (Regional Technical Assistance Unit): Aims to support sustainable development and poverty reduction in rural areas.
  • Project Forests and Climate Change in Latin America (PBCC): Includes a Central American series and a regional document on CDM.
  • Stage II Adaptation Project: Funded by GEF and implemented by UNDP, it focuses on developing adaptation strategies and integrating them into national sustainable development plans.

3. Institutional Context

• National Council on Climate Change (CNCC): Coordinates climate change issues across sectors and includes representatives from MAGA and CONAMA.
• Guatemalan Office in Joint Implementation (OGIC): Oversees CDM projects and facilitates their development.
• Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food (MAGA): Formulates and monitors agricultural policies.
• Technical Division of Irrigation and Drainage: Regulates irrigation activities via the Master Plan for Irrigation and Drainage (PLAMAR).
• National Forest Institute (INAB): Conducts studies on seed banks, CDM, and forest inventories.
• Program for Forest Incentives (PINFOR): Provides cash payments to forestland owners for reforestation and sustainable forest management, active until 2017.

4. Mitigation Measures

• LUCF Emissions: In 1990, LUCF accounted for 43% of CO₂ emissions, but absorbed more CO₂ than it emitted, leading to a net carbon capture of 39,659.174 Gg CO₂.
• CDM Potential:
  • 6.5% of the national territory (0.7 million hectares) is suitable for CDM projects.
  • With CDM, Guatemala could capture 89 million tons of carbon by 2012.
• Key Mitigation Actions:
  • Forest conservation and soil improvement.
  • Efficient forest management.
  • Reforestation and afforestation.
  • Agro-forestry practices.
  • Promotion of environmental services.

5. Adaptation Measures

• Land Management:

  • Main crops: Corn, beans, rice, sorghum, and wheat.
  • Climate scenarios predict yield variations for these crops, ranging from 15% increases to 34% decreases.
  • Land degradation is at 32.47%, close to the LAC average.

• Water Use:

  • Agriculture accounts for 74% of total water usage.
  • 2.94 million hectares are suited for agricultural production, 2.6 million for irrigation.
  • Actual irrigation area is 133,803 hectares (5% of total), mostly in the Atlantic Coast, High Plains, and lower Pacific coastal areas.
  • Vulnerability studies indicate potential reductions in superficial water flow by 10-50% in some departments.

• Social Aspects:

  • 51.8% of the population lives in rural areas, with 70.5% in poverty.
  • Non-traditional agricultural producers have better socioeconomic indicators.
  • Landless households show better social and economic performance.
  • The "Guate Solidaria Rural" program targets 41 rural municipalities to reduce poverty.
  • ACICAFOC promotes sustainable use of resources and works with rural communities in Central America.

• Insurance Instruments:

  • Agricultural insurance was introduced in 1998 and became more relevant after Hurricane Mitch.
  • The "Guateinvierte" project subsidizes up to 70% of insurance premiums.
  • All current insurance is MPCI (Minimum Premium Coverage Insurance).

Key Information

• Emissions: Agriculture (without LUCF) accounts for 83% of total GHG emissions in 1990, with methane (CH₄) from livestock being the main contributor (96% of CH₄ emissions).
• Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Guatemala's per capita CO₂ emissions in 2004 were 1 tCO₂/capita, lower than the LAC average of 2.6 tCO₂/capita and the global average of 4.5 tCO₂/capita.
• CDM Projects: Only 1 CDM project in agriculture is registered in Guatemala, which is a low number considering the country's vulnerability and the sector's contribution to emissions.
• Vulnerability: Guatemala is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts, despite producing less than 0.5% of global carbon emissions.

Conclusion

Guatemala faces significant challenges from climate change, particularly in its agricultural sector. While the country has taken some steps to address these issues through national and regional policies, the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation into the agricultural sector remains limited. Strengthening institutional coordination, expanding CDM projects, and developing more robust insurance mechanisms are crucial for improving resilience and managing public resources effectively in the face of climate-related disasters.