2009年-世界发展银行全球_Honduras_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_12页_2mb

Honduras: Climate Change and Agriculture Summary

Core Content

Honduras is a country in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) that has submitted one national communication to the UNFCCC and is preparing a second. Agriculture, particularly land use change and forestry (LUCF), is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the country. Despite its limited global carbon footprint (less than 0.5%), Honduras is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, especially due to its exposure to extreme weather events such as floods and hurricanes.

The country has a significant number of registered Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, with 15 in total and 3 specifically in the agricultural sector. These projects highlight the potential for agriculture to both contribute to and mitigate climate change.

Main Points

1. Climate Context

• Agricultural Land Use: Around 27% of Honduras' land is used for agriculture (17% for pasture, 10% for cultivation), and 41% is forested.
• Temperature and Precipitation Projections:
  • Temperature increases are expected between 0.6°C and 3.7°C, depending on the region.
  • Precipitation is projected to decrease by 7–37% in different regions, with the highest reductions in the South and South-West.
• Vulnerability:
  • Honduras is among the first 20 most vulnerable countries globally to climate change impacts.
  • It is the most vulnerable in Central America to hurricanes and floods.
  • The South and South-West regions are the most vulnerable due to high temperature increases and precipitation reductions.
• Historical Climate Impacts:
  • Hurricane Mitch in 1998 caused severe crop losses, affecting 29% of arable land and destroying at least 70% of crops.
  • The 2008 storm caused damage to 15,000 hectares of crops.

2. Policy Context

• National Communication: Honduras submitted its first in 1997 and is working on the second, which will include mitigation and adaptation measures.
• National Climate Change Program (PNAIC):
  • Conducted vulnerability studies across economic sectors.
  • Aims to meet international commitments and reduce vulnerability to climate change.
• National Climate Change Strategy:
  • Being developed to include mitigation and adaptation options for three priority sectors: energy, LUCF, and water.
• Regional Initiatives:
  • CCAD (Central American Commission on Environment and Development): Manages the environmental agenda in the region and includes climate change information.
  • RUTA (Regional Technical Assistance Unit): Focuses on rural development and sustainable agriculture in Central America.
  • PBCC (Project Forests and Climate Change in Latin America): A regional initiative funded by the FAO and the Netherlands, aimed at improving forest management and climate change mitigation.
  • PERFOR (Regional Strategic Program for Management of Forest Ecosystems): Designed for 2008–2012, focuses on improving forest management and integrating climate change into regional development strategies.

3. Institutional Context

• SERNA (Secretariat of Natural Resources and Environment):
  • National authority on climate change and CDM.
  • Manages the Climate Change Unit, which coordinates with various stakeholders.
• SAG (Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock):
  • Formulates policies for agriculture, livestock, and forestry.
  • Some of its programs indirectly support climate change mitigation.
• ICF (National Institute for Forest Conservation and Development of Protected Areas and Wildlife):
  • Government authority for the forest sector.
  • Operates under the New Forest Law and focuses on forest conservation and management.
• New Forestry Law (2007):
  • Establishes four key funds: Forest Reinvestment, Plantation Development, Municipal Forest Management, and Protected Areas and Wildlife Management.

4. Mitigation Measures

• Agricultural Emissions:
  • Agriculture accounts for 43% of methane emissions and 90% of nitrous oxide emissions.
  • LUCF contributes 25% of CO₂ emissions and 40,383.75 Gg of CO₂ emissions in 2000.
• Mitigation Strategies:
  • Forestry and Land Use Change:
    • Regenerated forests from abandoned agricultural land sequestered 53% of CO₂ absorption.
    • Deforestation rate increased from 1% (1990–2000) to 2.5% (1990–2005).
    • The Forest Action Plan (PLANFOR) outlines priorities for applied forestry research, including agroforestry and sustainable management.
  • Livestock:
    • Responsible for 98% of agricultural methane emissions, mainly from enteric fermentation.
    • Mitigation measures include improving livestock productivity, diet optimization, and promoting bio-digesters.
• Carbon Trading:
  • The BioCarbon Fund supports projects that reduce emissions and promote sustainable development.
  • The Pico Bonito Forest Restoration project is expected to reduce 850,000 tCO₂e by 2017.
  • Honduras has the highest number of CDM projects in Central America (15), with 3 in the agricultural sector.

5. Adaptation Measures

• Adaptation Strategies:
  • The First National Communication identified a National Adaptation Plan.
  • Measures include sustainable land and water management, and the development of insurance mechanisms.
• Land Management:
  • Fertilizer use intensity in Honduras (87 kg/ha) is higher than the regional average (65 kg/ha).
  • This trend has increased since 1993, when it was only 47 kg/ha.
• Water Use:
  • Agriculture accounts for 80% of freshwater withdrawal.
  • Only 5.6% of cropland is under irrigation, below the LAC average of 11.4%.
• Sustainable Agriculture Programs:
  • PASOLAC (Program for Sustainable Agriculture in the Hillsides of Central America): Promotes sustainable water and soil management in rural areas.
• Social Aspects and Interventions:
  • High rural poverty (75%) and extreme rural poverty (63%) exist in Honduras.
  • The Family Allowance Program (PRAF) provides subsidies for education and health in extreme poverty areas.
  • ACICAFOC (Central American Indigenous and Peasant Coordination Association): Supports sustainable use of natural and cultural resources in rural communities.
• Insurance Instruments:
  • Agricultural insurance was introduced in 2000, with BANADESA subsidizing 50% of premiums for corn.
  • The private insurance sector is developing various products, including index-based insurance.
  • FIDES (Inter American Federation of Insurance Companies): Provides technical assistance to agricultural insurance in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala.

Key Information

• Economic Contribution of Agriculture: Agriculture is a major employer and contributor to exports, but it is also highly vulnerable to climate change.
• Emission Contributions: Agriculture (without LUCF) contributes significantly to GHG emissions, particularly methane and nitrous oxide.
• Policy and Institutional Support: Honduras has a well-established institutional framework for addressing climate change, including national and regional initiatives.
• Regional Cooperation: Honduras collaborates with regional bodies like CCAD and RUTA, and is part of international projects such as PBCC and PERFOR.
• Adaptation and Mitigation: The country is focusing on both adaptation and mitigation, including sustainable land and water use, reforestation, and insurance mechanisms to protect against climate impacts.