2021-11-04-牛津经济研究院-US_October_brings_no_relief_to_US_supply_chain_strains_2页_265kb

US Supply Chain Summary: October 2021

Core Content

The US supply chain stress tracker indicates that supply chain pressures worsened in October, following a slight easing in September. Despite some improvements, the overall situation remains challenging, with logistics difficulties still being the most significant source of stress. Prices, activity, and labor challenges have intensified, while inventory pressures have only marginally decreased.

Main Points

• Logistics Pressures Remain Severe:

  • The number of cargo ships waiting to unload at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports reached an all-time high in October.
  • Seaborne shipping costs fell slightly but remained 450% above pre-Covid levels.
  • The Biden administration's 24/7 port operation agreement is a positive step but insufficient to resolve ongoing issues due to yard space limitations, workforce shortages, and new fees on empty containers.
  • The American Trucking Associations estimates an 80,000 driver shortage, which is worse than previously anticipated.
  • Businesses are concerned that current transportation bottlenecks could disrupt the holiday shopping season.

• Capacity Utilization Improved:

  • Capacity utilization likely rebounded from a September dip caused by Hurricane Ida.
  • Spare capacity remained minimal as factories worked to fulfill back orders.

• Production Costs Surged:

  • Manufacturing production costs rose by 40%–50% year-over-year.
  • The imbalance between raw materials and finished goods worsened, with raw material prices up 35%–55% and component prices up 10%–15%.
  • Producer service prices also increased, reaching over 6% year-over-year, a record high.

• Inventory Levels Still Low:

  • Inventories fell less in Q3 compared to Q2, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remained below pre-Covid levels for 70% of manufacturing sectors at the start of Q4.
  • Inventory levels are insufficient to meet current demand, as indicated by the October ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys.

• Labor Market Pressures Persist:

  • Job openings and overtime hours worked reached multi-year highs.
  • Labor cost pressures are firming, indicating ongoing challenges in hiring and retaining workers.
  • Improved health conditions, school reopenings, and the expiration of enhanced jobless benefits are expected to drive more Americans into the job market, though it will take time for the labor market to fully recover.

Key Information

• Supply Chain Stress Tracker:

  • Supply chain pressures increased in October.
  • Logistics difficulties remain the most acute issue.
  • Inventory pressures slightly decreased but are still below pre-Covid levels.

• Data Highlights:

  • Figure 1: Supply chain strains increased in October.
  • Figure 2: Cargo ship backlogs in LA and Long Beach hit a record high.
  • Figure 3: Producer price inflation for materials and components rose sharply.
  • Figure 4: Inventories are not rising fast enough to meet demand.

• Outlook:

  • Transportation and warehousing challenges are expected to persist.
  • The labor market is showing signs of recovery but will not resolve supply chain bottlenecks quickly.
  • Inventory levels are unlikely to meet demand in the near term, potentially affecting production and sales.