20250403-招银国际-Implications_of_US_reciprocal_tariffs_on_supply_chain_6页_1mb

Summary of US Reciprocal Tariffs Impact on Tech Supply Chain

Core Content

The document discusses the implications of US reciprocal tariffs on the global technology supply chain, particularly on component suppliers, OEM/ODM companies, and brand manufacturers. It highlights that the scale and pace of the new tariffs are larger and broader than market expectations, with the US imposing a $10%$ tariff on all imports and additional reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries, including significant rates on China, Vietnam, India, and the EU.

The impact varies across different segments of the supply chain. Component suppliers are expected to face limited direct effects due to their indirect exposure to the US market, although they may experience pricing pressure from downstream customers. OEM/ODM companies, especially those with production bases in China, Vietnam, and India, are likely to be directly affected, as these regions are major hubs for manufacturing products like PCs, smartphones, and servers. Brands, particularly Apple, are most exposed due to high US sales and reliance on manufacturing in China and India.

Main Points

• Tariff Overview:

  • The US announced a $10%$ tariff on all imports and additional reciprocal tariffs for 60 countries.
  • China faces a $34%$ tariff, Vietnam $46%$, India $26%$, and the EU $20%$.
  • Canada and Mexico will see a $25%$ tariff, although USMCA-compliant goods are exempted.

• Supply Chain Impact:

  • Component Suppliers: Limited direct impact, but potential indirect effects from weaker US demand.
  • OEM/ODM Companies: Direct impact due to production in China, Vietnam, and India. Companies like BYDE, Luxshare, and FIT Hon Teng are expected to be affected.
  • Brands: Apple is most impacted due to high US sales exposure and production in China and India. Xiaomi has limited exposure to the US market, thus less impact.

Key Information

• Global Production Breakdown:

  • $70%$ of global PCs and $90%$ of iPhones are made in China.
  • $60%$ of Samsung phones and $50%$ of AirPods/iPads are manufactured in Vietnam.
  • $60%+$ of servers are made in Mexico, the US, and Taiwan.

• Sales Exposure:

  • US market accounts for $\sim25%$ of global PC shipments and $10%$ of smartphone shipments in 2024.
  • Apple has $40%+$ US sales exposure, while Xiaomi has a single-digit mix in the US market.

Preferred Stocks for Accumulation

• Xiaomi (1810 HK): BUY, with $45%$ overseas sales exposure and limited US impact.
• AAC Tech (2018 HK): BUY, with a $30%$ upside potential for FY25E.
• Sunny Optical (2382 HK): BUY, with a $46%$ upside potential for FY25E.
• BYDE (285 HK): BUY, with a $27%$ upside potential for FY25E.
• FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK): BUY, with a $66%$ upside potential for FY25E.
• Q-Tech (1478 HK): BUY, with a $32%$ upside potential for FY25E.

Valuation Table Highlights

Conclusion

The US reciprocal tariffs are expected to have a mixed impact on the tech sector. While the immediate effect may be negative, the document suggests that certain companies with limited exposure to the US market may present buying opportunities after the market correction. The focus is on identifying quality names that could benefit from the market adjustment, such as Xiaomi, AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, BYDE, and Q-Tech.