2021-09-21-牛津经济研究院-US_Supply-chain_headwinds_pummel_the_economy_6页_507kb

US Supply-Chain Stress: Escalating Challenges and Outlook

The US economy is experiencing severe supply-side pressures as identified by Oxford Economics' new supply-chain stress tracker. Transportation logjams are the primary stress point, with ocean freight costs rising 400%+ since the COVID outbreak, and trucks facing delays that have doubled at seaports. Limited domestic production capacity, with utilization at 76.7% in August and stuck since 2000, exacerbates issues, as raw material prices are up 35-55% year-over-year, creating the worst imbalance between materials and finished goods in two decades.

Inventory restocking is delayed due to lean inventories (75% of subsectors have less inventory relative to sales) and disrupted business cycles, constraining downstream activity. Labor challenges include rising vacancies, high wage growth (5% y/y), and overtime, but these are less severe than other factors.

Forecasts suggest easing by mid-2022 with vaccinations and demand normalization, but short-term disruptions like semiconductor shortages may last longer into 2023.