20150618-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_24页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Date: Thursday, 18 June 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides an analysis of financial updates and market performance for various companies in Asia, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well as key indices and investment recommendations. It highlights potential opportunities and risks in different markets, focusing on corporate developments, valuation metrics, and performance trends.
China
Ping An Insurance (2318 HK)
- Update: Management suggested that the company's potential in internet finance has not been fully recognized by the market and is open to spinning off parts of its business to maximize shareholder value.
- Recommendation: Upgraded to BUY with a new target price of HK$138.00, indicating a +24.4% upside from the current price of HK$110.90.
- Valuation Insight: Current market cap reflects only the value of life and P&C segments, while the banking segment is undervalued at 1.1x book value. The potential spin-off of the internet finance segment, particularly Lufax, is expected to trigger a re-rating.
- SOTP Valuation:
- Life segment: 594,779 Rmbm (1.7x P/EV)
- P&C segment: 103,822 Rmbm (2.0x P/B)
- Banking segment: 105,726 Rmbm (1.2x P/B)
- Lufax: 62,000 Rmbm
- Securities business: 25,128 Rmbm (2.2x P/B)
- Fair value of Group: 981,888 Rmbm
- Key Financials:
- Gross written premiums: Projected to grow from 2013 to 2017.
- Net profit (adj.): Expected to increase from 39,279 Rmbm in 2014 to 57,523 Rmbm in 2017.
- EPS: Expected to rise from 355.7 Fen in 2014 to 629.4 Fen in 2017.
- P/E: Expected to decrease from 25.0x in 2014 to 14.1x in 2017.
- ROE: Expected to decline from 16.6% in 2014 to 13.7% in 2017.
Indonesia
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)
- Strategy: Expanding e-commerce, health & beauty retailing, and increasing fee income through new stores.
- Key Financials:
- Net turnover: Increased from 14,064 Rpb in 2010 to 41,773 Rpb in 2014.
- EBITDA: Rose from 652 Rpb in 2010 to 2,505 Rpb in 2014.
- Operating profit: Grew from 311 Rpb in 2010 to 1,147 Rpb in 2014.
- Net profit (adj.): Increased from 256 Rpb in 2010 to 534 Rpb in 2014.
- EPS: Rose from 7.5 Rp in 2010 to 14.1 Rp in 2014.
- PE: Currently trading at 34.8x 2015F and 27.7x 2016F.
- Outlook: Targeting 17% yoy sales growth and 7.5% same-store sales growth in 2015, with the opening of 1,200 new stores. Fee income is expected to double this year.
- Risks: Unfavorable government regulations, licensing restrictions, competition from global brands, and weak purchasing power due to high inflation.
Malaysia
EcoWorld Development (ECW MK)
- Results: 2QFY15 saw delayed recognition of billings due to timing issues, but earnings are expected to improve in subsequent quarters.
Top Glove (TOPG MK)
- Results: 3QFY15 reported a RM72m net profit, a 30% qoq increase in nitrile glove sales.
AirAsia (AIRAMK)
- Update: Under stress testing and analysts’ briefing, focusing on book value and potential operational changes.
Singapore
First Resources (FR SP)
- Update: Benefiting from Indonesia's new policies, with good productivity and yields. Highly leveraged on CPO prices.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17935.7 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -1.8 | 0.6 |
| S&P 500 | 2100.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 2.0 |
| FTSE 100 | 6680.6 | -0.4 | -2.2 | -4.0 | 1.7 |
| AS30 | 5590.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | -1.2 | 3.7 |
| CSI 300 | 5138.8 | 1.5 | -3.2 | 12.3 | 45.4 |
| FSSTI | 3325.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -1.2 |
| HSCEI | 13414.8 | 1.2 | -1.5 | -3.7 | 11.9 |
| HSI | 26753.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -3.0 | 13.3 |
| JCI | 4945.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -5.6 | -5.4 |
| KLCI | 1726.9 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
| KOSPI | 2034.9 | 0.3 | -0.8 | -3.7 | 6.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 20219.3 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 15.9 |
| SET | 1514.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| TWSE | 9189.8 | -0.2 | -1.2 | -4.3 | -1.3 |
| BDI | 725 | 6.5 | 17.3 | 14.4 | -7.3 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2270 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 3.8 | -1.2 |
| Nymex Crude (US$/bbl) | 60 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 0.6 | 12.3 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Potential Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | Beijing Capital | 694 HK | 8.73 | 12.30 |
| BUY | ICBC | 1398 HK | 6.43 | 7.80 |
| BUY | Bank BJB | BJBR J | 930.00 | 1,300.00 |
| BUY | Maybank | MAY MK | 9.20 | 10.30 |
| BUY | DBS | DBS SP | 20.78 | 25.08 |
| BUY | SATS Ltd | SATS SP | 3.48 | 4.00 |
| BUY | Kasikornbank | KBANK TB | 199.00 | 252.00 |
| BUY | PTT | PTT TB | 355.00 | 410.00 |
| SELL | UMWH Holdings | UMWH MK | 10.36 | 9.00 | -13.1 |
Key Assumptions
| Country | 2014 GDP % | 2015F GDP % |
|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Hong Kong | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.2 | 7.0 |
Valuation Assumptions
| Item | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 99.45 | 65 | 70 |
| CPO (US$/ml) | 722 | 765 | 788 |
| BDI | 1,101 | 1,300 | 1,400 |
Conclusion
- Ping An Insurance is viewed as undervalued due to its strong internet finance segment and potential spin-off.
- Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is expanding into e-commerce and health & beauty retailing, with growth targets for 2015.
- The report highlights the importance of CPO prices in Singapore and Malaysia, and the potential impact of economic growth and market conditions on key indices.
- Investment recommendations are based on valuations, growth expectations, and management outlooks.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
