20241031-国投证券-比亚迪-002594.SZ-24Q3业绩优异_量价利齐升_5页_799kb

中文总结

比亚迪（002594SZ）2024年三季度报告显示，公司实现收入20112亿元，同比+24.0%，环比+14.2%；归母净利润1161亿元，同比+11.5%，环比+28.1%；扣非净利润1088亿元，同比+12.7%，环比+27.0%。销量达113万辆，同比+37.0%，环比+15.0%。单车ASP为1395元，同比下降14.0元；毛利率25.6%，环比上升3.2个百分点；单车净利103元，环比上升1元。

DM50系列产品贡献销量223万辆，占比超28%；新车改款提升售价3-6千元，推动盈利上行。销售费用率48%，环比+5个百分点，主要由于新车上市推广费用增加。研发费用率达68%，环比增长17个百分点，研发投入进一步加大。公司现金储备充足，截至三季度末现金及现金等价物余额658亿元，现金流净额421亿元。

展望未来，比亚迪计划通过新产品发布和海外扩张实现业绩增长。2024年出口量目标达40万辆，海外市场毛利率更高。预测2024-2026年净利润分别为4103亿、5502亿、6212亿，对应PE分别为217、162、143。目标价34.02元，维持“买入-A”评级。

English Summary

BYD (002594SZ) Q3 2024 Performance Summary

BYD achieved total revenue of 201.12 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up by 24.0% YoY and 14.2% QoQ. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 116.1 billion yuan (+11.5% YoY, +28.1% QoQ). Non-GAAP net profit was 108.8 billion yuan (+12.7% YoY, +27.0% QoQ). Passenger vehicle sales totaled 1.13 million units, up by 37.0% YoY and 15.0% QoQ. Average selling price (ASP) was 13,950 yuan per unit, a slight decline of 1,400 yuan YoY; gross margin was 25.6%, an improvement of 3.2 percentage points QoQ. Unit net profit was 103 yuan, up by 1 yuan QoQ.

The DM50 series accounted for over 28% of Q3 sales, driving 2.23 million units. New models launched include the Song L (630k units) and updated models (e.g., Song Plus, Haijun 07, Han, Yunyang). Price increases from DM50 model upgrades (up to 6,000 yuan) enhanced profit margins. R&D expenses reached 137 billion yuan (+234% YoY, +520% QoQ), with R&D expense ratio at 68%. Sales expenses rose significantly due to new model promotions. Cash reserves stood at 65.8 billion yuan by Q3-end, with strong operating cash flow of 42.1 billion yuan.

Looking forward, BYD plans to focus on three key areas:

1. Volume-profit synergy: Faster deliveries of model MPVs like the Song MAX and declining competition from traditional automakers will boost volume and profitability.
2. Premium shift: Models like Tang Z9 will drive structural upgrades, enhancing profit margins.
3. Global expansion: Full-year 2024 export targets at >400k units, with higher profitability in overseas markets.

We forecast BYD’s net profits for 2024-2026 at CNY 41.03B, 55.02B, 62.12B, corresponding to PE of 217x, 162x, 143x. Upside target price is CNY 34.02, maintaining "Buy-A" rating.

Key Figures

📈 Highlights:

• DM50 accounts for >28% of Q3 sales
• R&D expenses up 520% QoQ ($R&D ratio $68%$)
• 2024 export target: >400k units ($\approx 68$% profit margin increase)