2015乌克兰生物质能源调查（英文版）_42页_495kb

Summary of the Biomass-to-Energy Market in Ukraine

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the current market conditions, drivers, and barriers for biomass-to-energy projects in Ukraine, based on a survey conducted in 2015. It highlights the potential for biomass as a renewable energy source and outlines the key players, market structure, and opportunities for growth in the sector.

Main Points

Market Overview

• Market Potential: Ukraine has significant potential to increase its renewable energy use, particularly through biomass. According to IRENA, renewable energy use could increase tenfold by 2030, with biomass accounting for nearly 80% of this growth.
• Energy Security and Efficiency: Biomass is seen as a strategic resource for Ukraine due to its availability, energy security, and integration into the biomass supply chain.
• EU Context: The EU is the largest producer and consumer of wood pellets globally. Ukraine's role in the EU biomass market is growing, with an expected increase in the share of extra-EU biomass in EU imports.

Market Segments

• Municipal Heat Suppliers:

  • Represent the most dynamically developing segment of the biomass-to-energy market.
  • 36% of surveyed companies currently use biomass boilers, and 27% have designed projects for installation.
  • Despite this, biomass accounts for only 14% of the total fuel used by these companies, with natural gas being the most common fuel at 80%.
  • There is a trend of public and commercial consumers replacing gas boilers with biomass installations, with about 450 MWh of biomass boilers installed in the public sector during the 2014/2015 heating season.

• Pellet Producers:

  • 100% of surveyed pellet producers manufacture wood pellets, with 3 companies producing sunflower husk pellets.
  • 54% of producers focus solely on pellet production, while 22% combine it with wood processing.
  • Pellet production in 2014 reached approximately 1,500 kt, with expectations of a fivefold increase by 2020.
  • 80-90% of pellets were previously exported to EU countries, but the share of domestic use is increasing.

• Agricultural Companies:

  • Only 11% of agro-companies use agricultural waste for energy production.
  • 14% consider using crop residue to reduce energy costs, and 13% of big farms consider installing biogas plants.
  • However, only 2% have designed projects for biogas plant installation.
  • Agricultural companies are reluctant to sell biomass to pellet producers, with only 14% currently cooperating and 8% planning to do so.

• Industrial Enterprises:

  • They are a key domestic customer for pellet producers, with about 20% of pellet sales going to them.
  • They use biomass primarily for in-house energy needs, contributing to the demand for pellets.

• Electricity Generators:

  • Electricity generation from biomass is rare in Ukraine due to high initial investment, technical risks, and unstable green tariff regulation.
  • Co-firing of biomass with other fuels does not qualify for the renewable feed-in tariff.

Key Drivers and Barriers

Drivers

• Decreasing Biomass Prices: 86% of respondents consider this a key driver for biomass-to-energy projects.
• Government Subsidies: 80% of respondents mention government subsidies for equipment and installation as a driver.
• Increasing Natural Gas Prices: This is a significant factor in the short term.
• Feed-in Tariff and Stimulus Tariff: Availability of these can support the development of biomass CHP and heat production not from natural gas.

Barriers

• High Loan Interest Rates: Perceived as a major barrier by 88% of respondents.
• Large Initial Investment: A key challenge for many companies.
• Unstable Biomass Supply: 88% of respondents identify this as a barrier.
• Lack of Government Support: 85% of respondents consider this an obstacle.
• Unstable Energy Output: Due to variable quality and heat content of input biomass.
• High Cost of Biomass: Although not as pronounced as fossil fuels, biomass prices are expected to rise with market development.

Key Recommendations

• Investment in Biomass Supply Chain: Enhance collection, treatment, storage, and logistics to meet growing demand.
• Strengthen Market Cooperation: Encourage closer links between agricultural companies and pellet producers to improve biomass utilization.
• Policy Support: Implement stimulus tariffs and simplify procedures for land allocation for renewable energy installations.
• Market Development: Promote domestic use of biomass to reduce reliance on exports and support local energy security.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian biomass-to-energy market is in its early stages of development, with municipal heat suppliers being the most active users. The market is fragmented, and the lack of stable supply chains and policy support hampers growth. Despite these challenges, the potential for biomass as a renewable energy source is significant, and with proper investment and policy interventions, the market could expand substantially.