2015乌克兰生物质能源调查（英文版）_44页

Summary of IFC Survey on Biomass-to-Energy Market in Ukraine

Core Content

This report presents an analysis of the market conditions for biomass-to-energy projects in Ukraine, focusing on the current state, key drivers, barriers, and future prospects. Conducted in 2015 by GfK Ukraine, the survey collected insights from over 200 local stakeholders, including pellet producers, agricultural companies, and municipal energy suppliers.

Main Points

1. Market Overview

• Strategic Importance: Ukraine has significant potential for biomass-to-energy due to its agricultural base and natural resources.
• Market Segments: The market is fragmented, with several segments, including municipal heat suppliers, pellet producers, agricultural companies, and electricity generators.
• Key Users: Municipal and private heat suppliers are the most active users of biomass for energy production.

2. Current Market Structure

• Supply Side: Forestry and agricultural companies provide raw biomass, which is processed by pellet producers into usable forms.
• Demand Side: Municipal and private heat suppliers, industrial enterprises, and some agricultural companies use biomass to generate heat and electricity.
• Fuel Types: Wood biomass (wood chips, pellets, and raw wood) is the most commonly used, followed by pellets from agricultural waste (sunflower husk, straw, etc.).

3. Market Trends

• Growth in Biomass Use: The use of biomass in district heating systems is expected to grow significantly, from 0.14 bln m³ in 2013 to 3.2 bln m³ by 2020.
• Private Heat Suppliers: Increasingly active in the market, especially in providing heat to schools, hospitals, and small businesses.
• Pellet Production: The total production in 2014 was about 1,500 kt, with an expected fivefold increase to 7,500 kt by 2020.

4. Drivers for Biomass-to-Energy Projects

• Cost Savings: The main driver for biomass use is the decreasing price of biomass compared to fossil fuels.
• Government Support: Subsidies for equipment and interest rates on loans are important incentives.
• Stable Supply: A stable biomass supply is crucial for project implementation.
• Renewable Feed-in Tariff: Availability of feed-in tariffs for renewable power and stimulus tariffs for heat not from natural gas supports project development.

5. Barriers to Implementation

• High Interest Rates: A major financial barrier is the high cost of bank loans.
• Large Initial Investment: Significant capital is required for equipment and infrastructure.
• Unstable Biomass Supply: Concerns about the availability and quality of biomass are prominent.
• Lack of Government Support: Insufficient policy backing hinders project development.
• Technical Risks: Equipment reliability and unstable energy output from biomass are risks.

6. Legislation and Policy

• Ukrainian Legislation: The legislation supports biomass-to-energy, but it lacks the necessary incentives and stability to drive widespread adoption.
• EU Targets: Ukraine can contribute to EU renewable energy targets by exporting biomass, especially pellets.

7. Agricultural Sector

• Biomass Utilization: Agricultural companies are not the leading users of biomass, despite having direct access to it.
• Waste Utilization: Only 11% of surveyed agro-companies use their agricultural waste for energy, with a small percentage considering biogas plants.
• Collaboration with Pellet Producers: Only 14% of agro-companies currently collaborate with pellet producers, and only 8% plan to do so in the future.

8. Pellet Producers

• Production Growth: About one third of pellet producers reported increased output in 2014, with an average growth rate of over 20%.
• Profitability: 61% of pellet producers reported profitability in 2014, while 22% reported losses.
• Market Outlook: Pellet producers are optimistic about 2015, with 44% expecting growth and 7% anticipating a decline.
• Capacity Utilization: Over half of the producers (59%) have a capacity utilization rate below 90%, indicating room for expansion.

9. Recommendations

• Investment in Supply Chain: Enhancing collection, treatment, storage, and logistics infrastructure is essential.
• Strengthen Market Links: Encouraging closer cooperation between agricultural companies and pellet producers can improve supply stability.
• Policy Support: Implementing stable and supportive policies, including stimulus tariffs and simplified land allocation procedures, is critical for market development.

Key Information

• Survey Period: January-March 2015.
• Survey Participants: Over 200 stakeholders, including pellet producers, agricultural producers, and municipal energy suppliers.
• Report Partners: IFC, the Finnish Ministry of International Affairs, the Free State of Saxony (Germany), and the Agency for International Business Cooperation within the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs.
• Report Purpose: To analyze market conditions, drivers, and barriers for biomass-to-energy projects and provide insights for future development.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian biomass-to-energy market is in its early stages of development. While there is significant potential, the market remains fragmented and faces several challenges, including high interest rates, unstable biomass supply, and lack of government support. Municipal heat suppliers are the most active segment, and pellet producers are optimistic about future growth. To realize the market opportunity, investment in supply chain infrastructure and stronger policy support are needed.