GSMA-2018年欧洲移动经济报告（英文）-2018.12-46页-2mb

The Mobile Economy in Europe 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the mobile economy in Europe, focusing on subscriber growth, technological advancements, financial outlook, and the impact of policy on the sector. It highlights the role of the GSMA and GSMA Intelligence in tracking and forecasting trends across the global mobile industry, with a specific emphasis on the European context.

Key Information

Subscriber Growth and Penetration

• Unique Mobile Subscribers: At year-end 2017, Europe had 465 million unique mobile subscribers, representing 85% of the population.
• Saturation: The total addressable market is approaching saturation, especially in Northern and Southern Europe.
• Growth Potential: The Netherlands and EU5 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland) are expected to add 13 million new unique subscribers by 2025.
• 4G Growth: 4G connections reached 285 million in 2017, accounting for 42% of total connections. By 2025, 4G connections are forecast to grow to 445 million, or 63% of total connections, with a CAGR of 5.1%.
• 5G Outlook: By 2025, Europe is expected to have 203 million 5G connections, or 29% of total connections. The European Commission has set an interim target for 5G to be available in at least one major city per member state by 2020.

Financial Outlook

• Mobile Revenues: Total mobile revenues in Europe reached €143 billion in 2017 and are projected to be €144 billion by the end of 2025, with a CAGR of 0.1%.
• Capex Trends: Capex for mobile operators in Europe was €193 billion between 2010 and 2017. For 2018–2020, capex is forecast to be €67 billion, but 5G deployment will require additional investment.
• 5G Investment Estimate: Deutsche Telekom CEO estimated that 5G rollout across Europe could cost between €300 billion and €500 billion, with the majority of investment expected after 2020.

Economic and Employment Impact

• Economic Contribution: Mobile technologies and services contributed €550 billion to Europe's economic value added in 2017, or 3.3% of GDP, and is expected to rise to €720 billion by 2022, or 4.1% of GDP.
• Employment: The mobile ecosystem supported 2.5 million jobs in Europe in 2017, including 1.4 million direct jobs and 1.1 million indirect jobs.
• Public Funding: Mobile operators contributed €100 billion in public funding in 2017, mainly through general taxation, including VAT, corporate taxes, and employment taxes.

Main Points

1.1 Limited Headroom in European Subscriber Growth

• Europe has a high penetration rate of 85%, but the market is nearing saturation.
• Growth in unique subscribers is expected to be modest, with 17 million new users by 2025.
• The CAGR for unique subscribers is 0.4%, lower than Latin America and MENA.

1.2 4G Migration Continues

• 4G coverage reached 97% of the population in 2017, expected to grow to 98% by 2025.
• 4G adoption is increasing, with 42% of total connections in 2017 and 63% by 2025.
• 4G will peak at 72% in early 2023 before declining as 5G adoption increases.
• There is still room for growth in 4G adoption, particularly in countries like Croatia and Montenegro.

1.3 5G Journeys Begin

• The European Commission is actively promoting 5G development through the 5G for Europe Action Plan.
• 5G commercialisation is expected to be led by countries like China, Japan, and the US.
• Europe is projected to have 203 million 5G connections by 2025, representing 29% of total connections.
• Early 5G trials and deployments have begun, with operators like Elisa, Orange, and TIM leading the charge.

1.4 Revenue and Capex Outlook

• Mobile revenues are stabilising, with €143 billion in 2017 and €144 billion by 2025.
• Regulatory changes, market consolidation, and consumer shift to 4G have helped stabilise revenues.
• Capex is expected to increase beyond €67 billion for 2018–2020 due to 5G investment.
• The CAGR for capex is 0.5%, with 5G investment likely to push capex as a percentage of revenue above 15%.

1.5 Evolving Market Structures

• Market consolidation is increasing, with 20 operators having closed or merged since 2010.
• Fixed-Mobile-Cable (FMC) convergence is becoming more common, especially in Spain, France, and Portugal.
• FMC has the potential to improve revenue mix and reduce churn.
• However, price discounting is often required to drive adoption, limiting marginal revenue gains.
• Vodafone's acquisition of Liberty Global's cable operations is a significant example of market consolidation.

Key Trends and Innovations

• 5G Trials: Multiple trials and pilot projects have been launched in Europe, including Orange's FWA network in Romania and TIM's 3.5 GHz antenna.
• IoT Development: European operators are contributing to the growth of the IoT market, with commercial LPWA networks and partnerships in enterprise IoT.
• AI and Voice Interfaces: These technologies are becoming more prominent, altering how consumers interact with mobile services.
• Blockchain Use Cases: Potential applications include fraud prevention, mobile number portability, and eSIM provisioning.

Policy and Regulation

• The Digital Single Market strategy has driven reforms in telecoms and data protection.
• The Cybersecurity Act is expected to influence the future of mobile technology.
• Regulatory decisions, such as the prohibition of Three/O2 merger and withdrawal of TeliaSonera/Telenor merger notification, highlight the importance of competition policy.
• Policy decisions are crucial in shaping the future of mobile technology and the digital economy in Europe.

Conclusion

The European mobile economy is maturing, with high subscriber penetration and ongoing migration to 4G and the early stages of 5G deployment. Financial performance is stabilising, driven by data demand and improved macroeconomic conditions. However, the sector faces challenges in sustaining growth and investment, particularly with the transition to 5G. Policy and regulation play a vital role in enabling innovation, protecting consumers, and supporting the expansion of next-generation networks. The evolving market structures, including FMC and consolidation, are reshaping the competitive landscape, with implications for both operators and end-users.