GSMA-2018年全球移动趋势报告（英文）-2018.9-84页-5mb

Global Mobile Trends Summary

Core Content

This document outlines key trends shaping the global mobile industry up to 2025, focusing on consumer behavior, network evolution, IoT expansion, media and content strategies, and regional outlooks.

Main Trends and Insights

Consumers and Mobile

• Global mobile usage: 5.1 billion people use mobile devices, with the focus shifting from growth to usage.
• Mobile internet adoption: The attachment rate (percentage of mobile users also using the internet) is expected to rise from 65% in 2017 to 86% by 2025.
• New users: 1.6 billion new mobile internet users will emerge between now and 2025, with 50% of growth concentrated in five countries: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan.
• Emerging markets: Low-cost Android smartphones and falling data prices are key drivers in these regions. Mobile internet access is becoming more common, especially among younger, lower-income, and non-English-speaking populations.
• Challenges for unconnected populations: Despite 80% of offline people living within 3G/4G range, issues like illiteracy, high data costs, and lack of local apps hinder access.

Networks

• 5G adoption: 1.36 billion 5G consumer connections are forecast by 2025, with China leading the charge. 5G will complement LTE rather than replace it, which is expected to remain dominant for the next decade.
• LTE growth: LTE will account for 57% of total mobile connections by 2025, making it the backbone for operators.
• 5G enterprise opportunities: Enterprise use of 5G (especially in B2B and B2B2C sectors) is more promising than consumer use, with applications in manufacturing, power, and transportation.
• Network edge and NFV: The shift to edge computing and NFV is redefining how services are hosted, with operators considering both private and public hosting models.
• Spectrum challenges: 5G spectrum is fragmented in Europe, and there are trade-offs in licensing strategies for private networks.

Internet of Things (IoT)

• IoT growth: The IoT market is projected to reach 25 billion connected devices by 2025, with enterprise verticals driving most of the growth.
• Connectivity commoditisation: Connectivity will become a smaller part of the value chain, with growth centered on platforms and analytics.
• Smart home and home automation: Many devices are connected, but integration and control remain challenges. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Alibaba are key players in this space.
• IoT revenue: The IoT market is expected to generate $750 billion in revenue by 2025, with professional services playing a critical role.

Media and Content

• SVOD disruption: Streaming video-on-demand (SVOD) has transformed the content value chain, bypassing traditional distribution models.
• Content strategies: Telcos are adopting asset-light approaches, licensing content from providers like Netflix, Amazon, and HBO, rather than building exclusive content in-house.
• Content as a differentiator: Exclusive content can reduce churn and increase data usage, but it is capital-intensive. Aggregating content is a more sustainable and cost-effective strategy.
• Social media impact: Platforms like Facebook and WeChat are redefining content formats and distribution, particularly appealing to millennials.

Regional Outlook

• Europe: 5G adoption is still in early stages due to cautious investment and slower spectrum release.
• US: 5G is being used for fixed wireless as a last-mile alternative, though it is more of a margin play than a growth play.
• China: A major driver of IoT and 5G growth, with significant testing in automotive and manufacturing.
• India: A key market for mobile internet growth, with 400 million smartphone users, though e-commerce adoption is still low.
• Asia (excluding China/India): A long tail of growth with less infrastructure development.
• Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa: Face challenges in rural coverage and affordability, but are expected to see significant growth in mobile internet.

Key Takeaways

• Consumer shift: Mobile-only users will dominate, especially in emerging markets.
• 5G focus: Enterprise applications will drive 5G adoption, not consumer use.
• IoT evolution: The market is moving from device connectivity to solution-based services.
• Content strategy: Telcos are leaning towards licensing and bundling, avoiding the high costs of building exclusive content.
• Network edge: The rise of edge computing and NFV is reshaping how services are delivered and hosted.
• Spectrum management: Fragmentation and licensing models are critical challenges for 5G deployment.
• Regional disparities: While some regions are leading in 5G and IoT, others lag due to infrastructure and economic barriers.

Conclusion

The mobile industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by 5G, IoT, and changing consumer behavior. Telcos are adapting by focusing on enterprise services, leveraging cloud partnerships, and adopting asset-light content strategies. Despite the challenges, the industry is poised for growth, especially in emerging markets where mobile is the primary access point to the internet.