GSMA-2018年北美移动经济报告（英文）-2018.11-44页-1mb

Summary of The Mobile Economy in North America (2018)

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the mobile economy in North America, focusing on subscriber growth, revenue trends, technological advancements, and the impact of mobile services on the economy and employment. It also outlines the strategic moves by mobile operators to adapt to the evolving market and the role of 5G and IoT in driving future growth.

Key Statistics

• Unique Mobile Subscribers: By the end of 2017, North America had over 300 million unique mobile subscribers, with the US accounting for 91% and Canada for 9%.
• Subscriber Penetration: Mobile penetration in North America reached 84% in 2017, expected to grow to 86% by 2025.
• Mobile Connections: In 2017, there were 374 million mobile connections, which is expected to grow to 420 million by 2025.
• IoT Growth: Licensed cellular IoT connections are projected to reach 515 million by 2025, contributing to a total of 933 million connections in the region.
• Smartphone Adoption: Smartphone penetration in North America reached 80% in 2017 and is expected to rise to 91% by 2025.
• 4G Adoption: 4G accounted for 70% of total connections in 2017 and is expected to reach 80% by 2019.
• 5G Adoption: 5G is expected to reach 49% of total connections in the US and 41% in Canada by 2025, surpassing global adoption rates in Europe and Asia.
• Total Connections: By 2025, North America is expected to have 933 million total connections, including IoT.

Main Points

1.1 Subscriber Growth

• By 2025, North America will have 328 million unique mobile subscribers.
• Mobile penetration is expected to increase from 84% in 2017 to 86% by 2025.
• Growth will be minimal, primarily among under-18 and over-65 age groups.
• The US dominates the market, with 91% of regional subscribers.

1.2 US and Canada as Global Leaders

• The US and Canada are leading in mobile internet penetration, mobile broadband, and smartphone adoption.
• The US is in the top 10 markets for smartphone and 4G adoption globally.
• By 2025, the US will have the highest smartphone adoption and fourth highest 5G adoption.
• Canada is among the top 5% for 4G adoption and top 10% for smartphone adoption.

1.3 Financial Outlook

• Revenue Trends: Mobile operator revenues faced challenges in 2017 due to intense competition and unlimited price plans, but showed signs of recovery in Q4 2017.
• Growth Projections: Mobile revenues in North America are expected to grow modestly, at an average annual rate of over 2%, reaching $300 billion by 2024 and $311 billion by 2025.
• Capex Trends: Capex peaked in 2017 due to 4G network upgrades, and is expected to continue with $122 billion investment between 2018 and 2020.
• 5G Investment: Further capex will be required for 5G expansion beyond the expected 70% and 55% coverage in the US and Canada.

Key Opportunities for Mobile Operators

2.1 Direct Economic Contribution

• In 2017, mobile technologies and services contributed $833 billion to North America's GDP.
• By 2022, this contribution is expected to rise to $1.1 trillion, or 4.9% of GDP.

2.2 Indirect and Productivity Impacts

• Mobile technology enhances productivity and enables new services across industries.
• IoT is a major driver of these productivity gains, with applications, platforms, and services accounting for the majority of IoT revenue in North America.

2.3 Employment and Public Funding

• The mobile ecosystem supported nearly 2.5 million jobs in 2017, including both direct and indirect employment.
• Mobile services contributed $114 billion in public funding through taxation in 2017.
• The US government also raised $19 billion through the auction of the 600 MHz band spectrum licenses.

3.1 Content and Media Diversification

• Mobile operators are diversifying into content and media through M&A deals such as Oath (Verizon) and AT&T's acquisition of Time Warner.
• These strategies aim to offset declining traditional mobile revenues and position operators as more than just connectivity providers.

3.2 Network Innovation

• Mobile operators are investing in network efficiency through technologies like NFV and SDN.
• 5G-based fixed wireless is expected to play a significant role in expanding high-speed services to households and businesses.

3.3 IoT Expansion

• IoT connections are projected to grow from under 100 million in 2017 to 5.9 billion by 2025.
• Industrial IoT will surpass consumer IoT by 2025, driven by adoption in smart cities, healthcare, manufacturing, and more.
• IoT revenue is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 21%, reaching $337 billion by 2025.

3.4 Startup Ecosystem and VC Funding

• North America is a hub for tech innovation, with venture capital funding expected to reach record levels.
• Mobile operators are partnering with startups to foster innovation in areas like IoT, entertainment, and AI.
• Examples include AT&T Foundry and Verizon Innovation Program.

Challenges and Uncertainties

• Market Competition: Unlimited pricing plans have impacted revenue growth.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: The Sprint and T-Mobile merger is pending regulatory approval.
• Trade Disputes: Escalating trade tensions may affect consumer prices and innovation.
• 5G Rollout: The pace of 5G adoption is expected to be faster than in other regions, but further investment will be needed for wider coverage.

Conclusion

North America is a benchmark for mobile technology migration, with high subscriber and connection penetration. The region is expected to lead the global 5G adoption, while IoT will significantly boost economic value and employment. Mobile operators are adapting by diversifying into content, enhancing network capabilities, and leveraging the startup ecosystem to ensure long-term growth and competitiveness.