20230403-招银国际-海底捞-06862.HK-Reopen_and_staff_costs_reform-led_turnaround_10页

Haidilao (6862 HK) 详细总结

核心内容

Haidilao, a leading Chinese catering company, has shown signs of a strong turnaround in its financial performance and operational efficiency. The company's performance in FY22 and FY23E is notable, especially considering the impact of the pandemic and the spin-off of its international business. The company's management has implemented several cost control measures, such as using standardized ingredients, part-time staff, and a "low base salary but high bonus" structure, which have significantly improved its net profit margins and reduced staff costs as a percentage of sales. The company's valuation is also considered attractive, with a current P/E ratio of 27x for FY23E, below its 5-year average of 42x and peers' average of 32x.

主要观点

• Haidilao's FY22 results beat expectations when excluding the spin-off, with a net profit of RMB 1.6bn for its Greater China business, a 20% beat compared to the consensus.
• The company's performance in 2H22 was particularly strong, with an adjusted net profit margin of ~9% and a significant improvement in seat turnover and sales recovery.
• For FY23E, the company is expected to achieve a seat turnover of 3.7x and a net profit margin of ~9.3%, with a recovery rate of 80%+ compared to 2019 levels.
• The company's new store opening guidance is relatively conservative, but the performance of the 24 new stores opened in FY22 suggests potential upside for expansion in FY23E.
• The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 27x for FY23E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average and peers.
• The company's net profit is expected to grow at a 49% CAGR from FY22 to FY25E, which is a strong performance.

关键信息

• FY22 Performance: Haidilao returned to profit of RMB 1.3bn, with its Greater China business achieving a net profit of RMB 1.6bn, a 20% beat.
• Staff Cost Control: The company has implemented cost control measures, including the use of part-time staff and a "low base salary but high bonus" structure, which have reduced staff costs to ~27.4% of sales in FY23E.
• Sales Recovery: The company's sales are expected to recover to 80%+ of 2019 levels in FY23E, with a seat turnover of 3.7x.
• Valuation: The stock is currently trading at 27x P/E for FY23E, which is below its 5-year average and peers' average, suggesting potential for growth.
• Earnings Forecast: Our net profit forecasts for FY23E and FY24E are 41% and 32% higher than the consensus, respectively.
• Target Price: We have raised the target price to HK$27.97, a 31.6% upside from the current price of HK$21.25.

估值分析

Haidilao's valuation is considered attractive, with a current P/E ratio of 27x for FY23E, which is significantly lower than its 5-year average of 42x and the average of its peers at 32x. This suggests that the stock may be undervalued, and there is potential for growth. The company's net profit is expected to grow at a 49% CAGR from FY22 to FY25E, which is a strong performance. The forward 12M P/E valuation band is also within a reasonable range, indicating that the stock is likely to perform well in the coming years.

假设与预测

• 餐厅数量增长: The company's restaurant count is expected to grow by 1.2% in FY23E, with a total of 1,387 restaurants.
• 销售额: The company's revenue is expected to reach RMB 39,934mn in FY23E, with a YoY growth of 28.7%.
• 净利润: The company's net profit is expected to reach RMB 3,712.1mn in FY23E, with a YoY growth of 125.6%.
• 净利率: The company's net profit margin is expected to reach 9.3% in FY23E, with a YoY growth of 4.1ppt.
• 其他费用: The company's operating expenses are expected to decrease as a percentage of sales, with staff costs at ~27.4% and other rental related expenses at ~0.9% in FY23E.

总结

Haidilao has shown a strong turnaround in its financial performance and operational efficiency, with a notable improvement in its net profit margins and sales recovery. The company's valuation is considered attractive, with a current P/E ratio of 27x for FY23E, which is significantly lower than its 5-year average and peers' average. Our net profit forecasts for FY23E and FY24E are 41% and 32% higher than the consensus, respectively. The company's new store opening guidance is relatively conservative, but the performance of the 24 new stores opened in FY22 suggests potential upside for expansion in FY23E. The stock is currently trading at a price that suggests potential for growth, with a target price of HK$27.97, a 31.6% upside from the current price.